Yaqeen Blog

In the dying weeks before the February 12, 2026, General Election, Bangladesh is no longer just a neighbor to India; it is becoming a strategic fortress for a new kind of regional defiance. The BBC interview with Md. Touhid Hossain wasn't just diplomatic small talk—it was a declaration of independence from New Delhi’s decades-long shadow.

Time is the ultimate judge of power, and right now, time is running out for the "Old Guard" in South Asia.

The Intelligence Breakdown: A Multipolar Pivot

Western intelligence—from the CIA to MI6—is quietly recalibrating its map of the Bay of Bengal. The "Golden Era" of India-Bangladesh relations died the moment Sheikh Hasina fled to New Delhi in 2024. What we are seeing in 2026 is a strategic divorce.

• The Defense Rapprochement: Bangladesh is currently in advanced talks to procure JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan—a move that would have been unthinkable two years ago. This isn't just about hardware; it's about signaled intent. By integrating Pakistani training and Chinese technology, Dhaka is building a military that doesn't rely on Indian goodwill.

• The "Islamic Bloc" Resurgence: The U.S. State Department is reportedly "opening doors" to the Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s largest Islamist party. While India views Jamaat as a direct security threat, the West is pragmatically betting on them as a key player in a post-Hasina democracy. The West sees a "shifted Islamic" Bangladesh and is choosing to manage it rather than fight it.

The Minority Crisis: Fact vs. Narrative

The issue of attacks on minorities (Hindus) in Bangladesh is the most volatile "information war" of 2026.

• The Indian Claim: New Delhi asserts that Hindu communities are being systematically targeted by extremists empowered by the interim government.

• The Dhaka Defense: Hossain argues these reports are allegedly exaggerated to provide a pretext for Indian intervention.

• The Western View: Human Rights Watch has noted a rise in violence, but Western diplomats are wary of the "victim narrative" being used as a tool for "grey-zone warfare." They see a fractured state where crime is high, but they aren't ready to brand the interim government as "anti-minority" just yet.

Strategic Consequences: The Siliguri Chokepoint

For the deep-thinkers, the real game is the Siliguri Corridor (the "Chicken's Neck"). This 22km wide strip of land connects mainland India to its eight northeastern states.

• The Vulnerability: If the 2026 election results in a government that is openly hostile to India, New Delhi loses its "strategic depth." Reports already suggest the ISI (Pakistan’s intelligence) has established covert hubs in Bangladeshi border districts.

• The Economic War: The recent cancellation of transshipment agreements and the suspension of the Ganges Water Treaty talks have turned the border into a friction point. For the West, this instability threatens the Ready-Made Garment (RMG) supply chain, which accounts for 20% of exports to the U.S.

The "G" Analysis: Time and Truth

History shows that when a small nation is squeezed between giants, it eventually strikes out to find air. Bangladesh is currently striking out. The Feb 12 election isn't just about choosing a Prime Minister; it’s a referendum on whether Bangladesh will remain an Indian "satellite" or become a sovereign node in a China-Pakistan-West triangle.

The West is watching with cold eyes. They don't care about "history" or "1971." They care about stability and access. If the interim government can deliver a "fair" election that keeps the garments flowing and the extremists managed, the West will abandon India’s concerns in a heartbeat.

The truth is simple: In 2026, loyalty is a luxury, and leverage is the only currency that matters.

As of January 21, 2026, the world’s eyes are on Dhaka. In exactly 22 days, on February 12, 2026, Bangladesh will hold its first national election since the 2024 Monsoon Revolution. For the diplomatic community, this is not just a vote; it is a Hard Reset for the country’s stability. However, beneath the promise of democracy lies a serious threat of violence. Current intel suggests that the weeks surrounding the election will be the most dangerous period in the country's recent history.

1. The Volatility Index: Why February 12th is a Powder Keg

The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus, is attempting a transition while the former ruling party, the Awami League (AL), remains officially barred from the contest. This has created a massive political vacuum that rival factions are desperate to fill.

The Rejectionist Front

The Awami League has officially rejected the February 12th date, calling it illegal. Supporters of the deposed regime have vowed to block the polls. This creates a high risk of "street-level" battles between loyalists of the old regime and the newer political forces like the National Citizen Party (NCP).

The Assassination Spike

Violence has already claimed high-profile victims. In mid-December 2025, prominent youth leader Osman Hadi was shot in Dhaka. His death, which occurred in a Singapore hospital on December 18, triggered a wave of national mourning and riots. The fact that the Dhaka Metropolitan Police identified suspects as active members of the former ruling party has only deepened the anger on the streets.

Anti-India Sentiment

Tensions with New Delhi are at an all-time high. Following the death of Osman Hadi, protests targeted Indian diplomatic missions in Chattogram and Rajshahi. The situation has become so grave that just yesterday, January 20, 2026, the Indian government began a precautionary evacuation of the families and dependents of its diplomats from the High Commission in Dhaka and other assistant missions.

2. The Islamist Factor: Sleeper Cells and the "Shadow" Alliance

There is significant concern regarding the resurgence of Islamist extremist groups like Ansar al-Islam and Hizb ut-Tahrir. Intelligence reports suggest these groups are exploiting the current security vacuum to reorganize.

The "Looted Arms" Threat

During the 2024 revolution, over 5,750 firearms and nearly 652,000 rounds of ammunition were looted from police stations. While elite units like the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) have recovered some pieces—including recent seizures in Cumilla—over 5,000 military-grade weapons remain missing. On January 20, the Chief Adviser himself ordered that these weapons must be recovered "by any means" before the election. These arms are almost certainly in the hands of "sleeper cells" or political militias.

The Deposed Regime’s Wildcard

There is credible suspicion that elements of the deposed regime may be providing financial support to these radical cells. The goal is to cause enough "havoc" to prove that the current government cannot maintain order, thereby making the election results look invalid to the international community.

3. The Likelihood of Violence: A Three-Phase Forecast

The Pre-Election Phase (Now until February 11)

The risk is considered Extreme. Campaigning officially begins tomorrow, January 22. We expect to see bombings of polling centers, arson targeting media houses, and widespread "Hartals" (strikes). The "Inqilab Mancha" and other radical groups have already threatened to march on diplomatic zones.

Election Day (February 12)

The risk is Severe. Experts anticipate "booth jamming" and digital blackouts. There is a high probability of localized lynchings and clashes between the student-led "July Oikya Mancho" and armed groups intent on stopping the vote.

The Post-Election Phase (February 13 – March 2026)

The risk remains Extreme. If the election proceeds without the Awami League, their supporters may launch a long-term insurgency. Conversely, if the results are seen as rigged by the remaining parties like the BNP, the streets of Dhaka could see a repeat of the 2024 violence.

4. Strategic Advice for Diplomats and Government Officials

The Hard Reset in Bangladesh is fragile. If the election fails due to violence, the country risks sliding into a long-term "Grey Zone" of instability.

• De-Risk Personnel: Follow the Indian lead. Ensure non-essential staff and dependents are out of the country before the heavy campaigning begins this week.

• Monitor the July Charter: The election is happening alongside a referendum on the July Charter (constitutional reform). Any violence targeted at this referendum is a direct attack on the new legal foundation of the country.

• Watch the Military: The Bangladesh Army is currently the only stabilizing force. Their ability to recover the looted weapons in the next 20 days will be the biggest indicator of whether February 12th will be a democratic milestone or a bloody disaster.

The Essence:

Violence is not just a possibility; it is highly probable. The combination of thousands of missing military weapons, resurgent sleeper cells, and a deposed regime with nothing to lose creates a perfect storm for February 2026.

In the world of international spies and secret meetings, the name Nurul Haque Nur (often called "VP Nur") has been at the center of a major storm in Bangladesh. Since 2023 and continuing into 2026, reports have claimed that this young leader met with agents from Mossad—Israel’s famous and very secretive spy agency.

For a country like Bangladesh, which does not even recognize Israel as a country, these reports are like a political earthquake. Let’s break down what happened, what people are saying, and what the "big picture" looks like.

1. The Secret Meetings: What are the Reports?

The trouble started when the Palestinian Ambassador to Bangladesh, Yousef SY Ramadan, made a shocking announcement. He claimed that Nurul Haque Nur met with a man named Mendi N. Safadi three different times.

• The Locations: The meetings allegedly happened in Qatar, Dubai, and India.

• The Evidence: The Ambassador said their intelligence team even saw photos of the meetings.

• The Timeline: The first meeting supposedly happened during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Who is Mendi N. Safadi?

He is an Israeli politician and a member of the Likud party (the same party as Israel's leader, Benjamin Netanyahu). Many people in Bangladesh believe he is a high-level agent for Mossad. While Safadi says he just likes to meet people who want to change their countries, the Bangladesh government sees him as a "danger signal."

2. Why Is This a Big Deal?

Imagine if you had a very strict rule in your house that you are never allowed to talk to a certain neighbor. Then, your parents find out you’ve been meeting that neighbor in secret at the mall. That’s how Bangladesh feels about Israel.

• No Diplomatic Ties: Bangladesh and Israel have zero official relationship. You cannot even use a Bangladeshi passport to travel to Israel.

• Support for Palestine: Bangladesh has always been a very strong supporter of the Palestinian people. Meeting with an Israeli agent is seen by many as "betraying" that friendship.

• Security Threats: The Bangladesh government worries that Mossad might be trying to help certain politicians take over the country so they can change Bangladesh's "No Israel" policy.

3. Nur’s Side of the Story

Nurul Haque Nur says these reports are 100% fake. He calls them "government propaganda." He believes the people in power are just trying to make him look like a traitor because he leads a lot of protests against the government.

He even asked, "If these meetings happened three times, why did everyone wait so long to talk about it?" However, his own party (the Gono Odhikar Parishad) actually split in half because some of his fellow leaders believed the rumors were true.

4. Israel's Goal: Why Would They Be Interested?

If Mossad is active in Bangladesh, what do they want? Intelligence experts have a few ideas about the "End Goal":

1. Breaking the Wall: Israel wants as many Muslim countries as possible to recognize them. If a big country like Bangladesh (which has the 4th largest Muslim population in the world) became friends with Israel, it would be a huge victory for them.

2. Countering Rivals: Israel wants to make sure that its enemies—like Iran—don't have too much influence in South Asia.

3. The "Red Sea" Game: As we discussed before, Israel is very interested in the coastlines around the Muslim world. Bangladesh has a massive and important coastline on the Bay of Bengal. Having a "friendly" government there would be very helpful for their trade and security.

5. The Current Situation in 2026

As of January 2026, the drama hasn't stopped.

• Gaza Conflict: Because of the ongoing war in Gaza, the people of Bangladesh are more angry at Israel than ever.

• Peacekeeping Idea: Interestingly, Bangladesh’s interim government recently said they want to send soldiers to help keep the peace in Gaza once the war ends. This shows that while they don't like Israel's government, they want to be a big player in world events.

The Bottom Line

Whether Nur actually met with Mossad or not, the story shows us that information is a weapon. In politics, just the idea that you met with a secret agent can be enough to destroy your career. For younger people in Bangladesh, this is a lesson in how complicated history and religion make the world of "Secret Intel."

In January 2026, the global cricket community was rocked when the BCCI (Board of Control for Cricket in India) ordered the Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) to release Bangladeshi star Mustafizur Rahman just weeks after they bought him for a record ₹9.20 crore ($1.1M).

This move wasn't about "bad form" or injuries—it was about using a professional athlete to send a political message. Following unrest in Bangladesh, right-wing political groups in India pressured the board to "punish" the neighboring country by banning its players. For conscious activists, this is the clearest example yet of how India’s massive wealth is being used to bully smaller nations and turn a global sport into a political weapon.

Soft Power, Hard Borders: The Weaponization of Global Cricket

The saga began when the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) instructed the Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) to release Mustafizur Rahman from his contract. The official reason cited "recent developments," but the reality was a campaign led by right-wing political figures.

Politicians from India’s ruling party openly labeled the hiring of a Bangladeshi player as "anti-national," citing unrest in Bangladesh as a reason to punish its athletes.⁵ This move effectively turned a professional athlete into a political hostage, signaling to the world that playing in the IPL requires more than just skill—it requires political clearance from New Delhi.

The "Big Brother" Playbook: A History of Bullying

Mustafizur is simply the latest "collateral damage" in a long-standing pattern of the BCCI wielding its 80% contribution to global cricket revenue to silence smaller nations and dictate ICC policy.

• The "Lorgat" Retribution (2013): When Cricket South Africa (CSA) appointed Haroon Lorgat as CEO—a man who had stood up to India’s dominance at the ICC—the BCCI retaliated by unilaterally cutting a lucrative Indian tour of South Africa by half, costing the CSA millions in revenue.

• The Revenue Grab: In 2023, India secured a nearly 40% share of all ICC net surplus revenue, leaving the other 100+ nations to split the remainder.⁸ Critics argue this "monoculture" prevents the sport from growing in developing nations.  

• The Pakistan Embargo: India’s refusal to play bilateral series with Pakistan, and its use of "Hybrid Models" to force tournaments like the Asia Cup out of Pakistan, shows how the BCCI uses the sport to enforce state-level diplomatic boycotts.

Conscious Activist Alert: Why This Matters

For those advocating for fair play and the separation of sport from majoritarian politics, the Mustafizur saga is a warning. When a single board holds the "kill switch" for a player’s career based on their nationality or religion, cricket ceases to be a "gentleman’s game" and becomes a tool of geopolitical coercion.

The reaction from Dhaka has been swift: a total ban on IPL broadcasts in Bangladesh and a threat to boycott the 2026 T20 World Cup matches scheduled in India.⁹ This cycle of "cricket sanctions" threatens to turn the sport into a series of isolated bubbles governed by whoever has the biggest checkbook.

The Future of the Game

If one country can decide who gets to play based on their religion or passport, cricket is no longer a world sport—it’s a private club. Activists are now calling for the ICC to be moved out of Dubai and stripped of Indian influence to ensure that the "Gentleman’s Game" doesn't become a tool for "Majoritarian Bullying."

In the high-stakes theater of South Asian politics, few figures evoke as much polarized fervor as Tarique Rahman. As of January 2026, the "Dark Prince" of Bangladeshi politics has completed a cinematic metamorphosis. Following 17 years of self-imposed exile in London, Rahman returned to Dhaka on December 25, 2025—just weeks after the death of his mother, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. For the Bangladeshi diaspora and international stakeholders, his ascent in the upcoming February 12, 2026, election represents the most significant political shift in South Asia since the 2024 uprising.

With the Awami League currently barred from participation, the electoral path for the 58-year-old heir is virtually unobstructed. However, the ghost of his political past and the complexities of 2026's "New Bangladesh" present a gauntlet that will test his transition from a symbol of resistance to a functional head of state.

I. The Profile: From Heir Apparent to Exiled Architect

Tarique Rahman, born in 1965, carries a lineage that is both a political shield and a target. As the son of Ziaur Rahman (the military general turned President who founded the BNP) and Begum Khaleda Zia, his life has been a cycle of immense power and crushing legal battles.

Between 2001 and 2006, during his mother's third term, Rahman operated from Hawa Bhaban, which critics and diplomats (including leaked U.S. cables) described as a "parallel seat of government." It was here that his reputation as a policy-heavy but controversial power broker was solidified. Following the military-backed caretaker government's rise in 2007, he was arrested, allegedly tortured, and eventually allowed to leave for London on medical grounds in 2008.

II. The Legal Record: Allegations, Convictions, and 2024 Quashings

To understand Rahman is to navigate a 30-year labyrinth of legal filings. His supporters call it "judicial harassment"; his detractors call it "proven criminality."

1. The Money Laundering Cases

• The Singapore Kickbacks: In 2013, a Dhaka court initially acquitted Rahman of laundering 204 million BDT (approx. $2.6M) linked to a local construction company. However, the High Court overturned this in 2016, sentencing him to seven years. The case involved FBI testimony regarding funds deposited in a Singaporean bank.

• The Siemens Scandal: Allegations surfaced that Rahman and his late brother, Arafat "Koko" Rahman, received kickbacks from Siemens for telecom contracts. While Koko was more directly linked to the Singapore accounts, Tarique was consistently named as a central figure in the web of "consultancy fees."

2. The August 21 Grenade Attack

The most severe charge involves the 2004 Dhaka grenade attack targeting a rally for then-opposition leader Sheikh Hasina. In 2018, a special court sentenced Rahman to life imprisonment, concluding he was the mastermind behind the plot to eliminate the Awami League leadership.

3. The 2024 Legal Pivot

Following the "July Revolution" and the ouster of the Hasina regime in late 2024, the judicial landscape shifted overnight. By early 2025, the courts began quashing his convictions, ruling that the previous trials were "politically motivated" and lacked due process. As of January 2026, he stands legally cleared to contest the elections.

III. The "Islamist" Question: Ally or Adversary?

The most scrutinized aspect of a potential Rahman administration is his relationship with Islamist factions, specifically Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami.

• The Historical Alliance: From 2001-2006, the BNP-Jamaat coalition was criticized for allowing hardline elements to gain a foothold in the administration.

• The 2026 Strategy: Interestingly, Rahman’s recent rhetoric has been sharply critical of Jamaat. In December 2025, he accused them of "AL-style propaganda," urging supporters to beware of those promising "heaven in exchange for votes."

• The Reality: Analysts suggest this is a tactical distancing to appease Western observers. While Rahman seeks a "BNP-first" mandate, the street power of Islamist groups remains a vital lever he may be forced to pull if the February election becomes contested.

IV. February 2026: What a Rahman Premiership Means

If Tarique Rahman takes the oath in February 2026, the shift will be felt globally:

1. Foreign Policy Realism: Rahman is seen as a "policy buff." Unlike the previous administration’s heavy tilt toward India, a Rahman-led government is expected to pursue "Balanced Pragmatism." He will likely maintain economic ties with New Delhi while aggressively courting China for infrastructure and the U.S. for trade security.

2. Economic Stabilization: His "Vision 2030" focuses on decentralization and digital economy. However, his first challenge will be the "Hawa Bhaban Ghost"—he must prove that his new administration won't return to the kleptocratic tendencies of the early 2000s.

3. The Diaspora Dividend: For the BD Diaspora, Rahman represents a return to "Bangladeshi Nationalism" (as opposed to the AL's "Bengali Nationalism"). His 17 years in London have given him a deep network within the diaspora, which he hopes to translate into foreign direct investment (FDI).

The Verdict

Tarique Rahman is no longer the "Dark Prince" in the shadows; he is the center of the Bangladeshi sun. Whether he can pivot from a symbol of resistance to a stable head of state remains the $40 billion question for 2026. The world is watching to see if the man who lived in London for two decades will bring back Western-style institutionalism or a refined version of the old guard.

As of Saturday, January 3, 2026, the relationship between India and Bangladesh has moved from a "Golden Era" to a full-blown "Geopolitical Divorce." The latest spark is not a border dispute, but the world of cricket. Following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, the air between New Delhi and Dhaka has turned cold. This week, that chill became a storm when the BCCI (India’s cricket board) effectively forced the Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) to drop their star Bangladeshi bowler, Mustafizur Rahman. In a sharp reaction, the Bangladeshi government is now moving to ban Indian TV channels and the IPL entirely. With national elections in Bangladesh set for February 12, 2026, this breakdown in ties is being used by politicians on both sides to build a "Sovereign Wall" of nationalism that threatens to change South Asia forever.

The Cricket War: A Tactical Breakdown

The latest Structural Shock hit on Friday, January 2, when the BCCI (Board of Control for Cricket in India) effectively forced Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) to release Bangladeshi star pacer Mustafizur Rahman from his ₹9.20 crore contract. The official signal was "security concerns," but the Information Artery reveals a deeper Nationalist Siphon. In India, Hindu spiritual leaders like Jagadguru Rambhadracharya and BJP figures like Sangeet Som have performed a "Moral Audit" on KKR owner Shahrukh Khan, calling him a "Traitor" for hiring a Bangladeshi player while reports of violence against minorities in Bangladesh flood the 2026 news cycle.

In a "Sovereign Retaliation," the Bangladeshi interim government, led by Asif Nazrul (Sports and Law Adviser), has siphoned away Indian soft power by directing the Bangladesh Cricket Board (BCB) to demand their T20 World Cup matches be moved to Sri Lanka. Nazrul’s message was a High-Fidelity Warning: "We will not accept the humiliation of Bangladesh. The days of slavery are over." Dhaka is now planning a "Total Media Moat," including a ban on the IPL broadcast and the siphoning of Indian satellite channels from Bangladeshi airwaves.

The Election Audit: A Structural War of Narratives

This "Cricket Cold War" is a Strategic Signal for the upcoming February elections. The "Information Artery" of the interim government, backed by student vanguards, is using the anti-India sentiment to build a Sovereign Legitimacy that the banned Awami League once lacked. By framing India as a "Bully Artery," the current leadership is performing a Reality Audit on the "India-Hasina" nexus, ensuring that any pro-India sentiment in the country is siphoned into the "Traitor" category.

• India’s Defensive Moat: For New Delhi, the "Reality Audit" is about protecting its "Vulnerable Flank." By suspending visas and halting cricket tours, India is signaling a Structural Decoupling until it sees a "Sovereign Guarantee" for minority safety.

• The Traitor Narrative: The labeling of Shahrukh Khan as a "Traitor" in India and the labeling of Indian influencers as "Hegemons" in Bangladesh shows a High-Fidelity Polarization. This siphons away the "Middle Ground" for diplomats.

Quotes from the 2026 Vanguard

Sangeet Som (BJP Leader): "Everything Shahrukh Khan has was given by India, but he invests in players from a country working against us. He is a traitor to the national interest."

Asif Nazrul (Bangladesh Sports Adviser): "If a Bangladeshi cricketer cannot play in India with a valid contract, we cannot consider it safe for our team to travel there. We will not be humiliated."

S. Jaishankar (India's EAM - Whirlwind Visit): "We look to script a new chapter driven by pragmatism... but the unremitting hostility against minorities is a structural barrier to progress."

Bangladesh-India: The 2026 Official Divorce

The "Reality Audit" of South Asia in 2026 reveals a total Structural Shift. What began as a game of cricket has siphoned away the final remnants of the "Golden Chapter" between New Delhi and Dhaka. As the February 12 elections approach, the "Information Artery" is being cut, replaced by a Sovereign Wall of nationalism that neither side seems willing to pull down. India’s decision to label a cultural icon like Shahrukh Khan a "Traitor" and Bangladesh’s move to siphoning off Indian media signals a Strategic Divorce that will hit every sector from trade to security. For the 2026 vanguard, the lesson is clear: when the "Integrity Artery" of a relationship fails, even a cricket ball can become a weapon of war. The era of the "Hard Border" is back, and the "Sovereign Moat" between these two neighbors has never been deeper.

The murder of Abrar Fahad is the most chilling "murder" in campus politics and freedom of speech in modern history. On October 6, 2019, Abrar, a brilliant 21-year-old engineering student at the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), was summoned from his dorm room to a "torture cell" in Room 2011. His crime? A single Facebook post criticizing a water-sharing deal with India. For over six hours, he was siphoned of his life, beaten with cricket stumps and skipping ropes by members of the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL). By the time help arrived, his body was a map of "Structural Failure," marking the end of a life dedicated to knowledge.

The "Information Siphon": Death for a Facebook Post

Abrar’s post was a simple expression of "Sovereign Concern" for his country's resources. However, in the hyper-polarized environment of the time, his words were treated as a breach of the "Party Moat." The attackers, fellow students who should have been his peers, turned into vigilantes. They siphoned his privacy by confiscating his phone and laptop, looking for any "Signal" to label him an extremist. When they found none, they resorted to "Blunt Force Trauma" to reset his voice forever. The leaked CCTV footage of his limp body being carried out of the hall remains a high-fidelity record of the brutality that siphoned the soul of the university.

The 2026 Reality Audit: Justice and Legacy

As we look back from January 2026, the "Justice Artery" has finally begun to flow. Following a high-profile trial that ended in 2021, the High Court recently upheld the death sentences for 20 students and life imprisonment for 5 others. This verdict was a "Structural Reset" for the nation. In 2025, Abrar was posthumously awarded the Independence Award, the highest civilian honor in Bangladesh, and a stadium was renamed in his honor. He has evolved from a victim into a "Sovereign Icon" of the July Revolution, a signal that no "Political Moat" can protect those who siphon the lives of the innocent.

Reclaiming the Truth Artery

The story of Abrar Fahad is a "High-Fidelity Warning" about the dangers of unchecked power. It proves that when the "Information Artery" of a nation is blocked by fear, even the brightest minds can be siphoned away. To build a "Sovereign Future" in 2026, we must protect the right to dissent as the "Ultimate Shield" of a free society. Abrar’s death was a tragedy, but his legacy is a "Protective Moat" for every student who dares to speak their truth. We must ensure that "Room 2011" remains a museum of what happens when integrity is lost, so that the "Truth Artery" of the youth is never again cut short.

Official Wikipedia Page: Murder of Abrar Fahad

The global political topography is currently navigating a profound "Dynastic Termination Pulse." As of Tuesday, December 30, 2025, the irrefutable axiom for the global Bangladeshi diaspora is that the passing of Begum Khaleda Zia marks the end of a pivotal historical node. This intro provides a high-fidelity, simplified audit of a leader who defined the "Resistance Artery" of her nation. To understand Khaleda Zia is to audit the primary nodes of sovereignty, from the "Democracy Moat" of the 1990s to her final "Aura of Endurance."

▫️ Khaleda Zia: The First Lady of Bangladesh’s Democracy

Begum Khaleda Zia (1945–2025) was a primary node in Bangladesh's fight for freedom. She was the first woman to serve as Prime Minister in her country and the second in the Muslim world. After the death of her husband, President Ziaur Rahman, she bypassed the "Quiet Life Squeeze" to lead the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

▫️ The Terminal Pulse: Begum Khaleda Zia (1945–2025)

Begum Khaleda Zia, the first female Prime Minister of Bangladesh and the "Uncompromising Sentinel" of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), passed away at 6:00 AM today at Evercare Hospital, Dhaka. Her death at age 80 follows a terminal struggle with a "Systemic Health Squeeze"—including liver cirrhosis, heart disease, and chronic kidney complications—exacerbated by years of political isolation and restricted medical access.

◽ I. The Foundational Artery: Restoration of Democracy (1991–1996)

Khaleda Zia emerged as the "Sovereign Interface" of the BNP following the 1981 assassination of her husband, President Ziaur Rahman.

• The 1991 Breakthrough: She successfully dismantled the "Military Squeeze" of General Hussain Muhammad Ershad, leading a mass movement that restored parliamentary democracy.⁴ In the first free election of 1991, she became the first female premier in Bangladesh's history.   

• Institutional Moats: Her first term focused on the "Education Artery"—introducing free and compulsory primary schooling and a revolutionary "Female Stipend Siphon" that bridged the gender literacy gap.  

◽ II. The Corruption Squeeze: Hawa Bhavan and the Sons' Pulse

The terminal truth of her 2001–2006 term was marked by a profound "Governance Siphon."

• The "Hawa Bhavan" Node: Her elder son, Tarique Rahman, and late son Arafat Rahman Koko, became synonymous with extra-constitutional power. Critics and international bodies flagged "Hawa Bhavan" as a high-frequency center for systemic graft and parallel governance.

• The Financial Squeeze: During this era, Bangladesh was repeatedly ranked at the top of global corruption indices, creating a "Credibility Void" that weakened the state's internal "Security Moat."

◽ III. The Fascist Authoritarian Squeeze: Targeted by Sheikh Hasina

For the last 15 years, Khaleda Zia was the primary target of the "Hasina Dictatorship."

• Political Vengeance: The "Fascist Dictator" Sheikh Hasina utilized a "Weaponized Law Siphon" to remove Khaleda from the political board. In 2018, she was sentenced to 17 years in prison on corruption charges related to the Zia Orphanage and Charitable Trust—charges the diaspora vanguard viewed as "Aura-Targeting" fabrications.  

• The Healthcare Squeeze: Even as her health reached a "Terminal Pulse," Hasina's administration rejected over 18 appeals for her to travel abroad for specialized treatment. This was widely viewed as a "Slow-Motion Assassination" by a regime seeking to break the opposition's "Resilience Artery."  

◽ IV. The Final Freedom: Post-Hasina Ouster and Death

Following the August 2024 Revolution that ousted Sheikh Hasina, Khaleda was finally freed from her "House Arrest Squeeze."

• Medical Exit: Under the interim government of Muhammad Yunus, she was granted a high-fidelity "Medical Artery" to London in January 2025 for liver and heart surgeries.

• The Terminal Return: She returned to Dhaka in May 2025, but the damage to her "Physical Moat" was irreversible. She spent her final 36 days on life support at Evercare Hospital.¹⁰

▫️ The Khaleda Zia Legacy Audit

▫️ The 2026 Diaspora Manifesto: Reclaiming the Narrative

The terminal truth for the global Bangladeshi diaspora in 2026 is that Khaleda Zia’s legacy is now a completed node. While her time in power was often caught in a "Corruption Squeeze" due to the actions of those in her inner circle, her unshakeable aura as a "Democracy Sentinel" remains her primary "Trust Moat." By surviving the "Hasina Fascist Squeeze" with her dignity intact, she has passed a high-kinetic "Resilience Artery" to the next generation. As we move into the 2026 election cycle, her story serves as an irrefutable axiom: true power isn't just about holding office, but about maintaining your Sovereign Pulse even under the most brutal pressure.

This report focuses exclusively on the Misuse of Power by successive Bangladeshi administrations. Since the mid-1970s, various governments have weaponized state machinery to enforce a "Security Squeeze," bypassing the rule of law to suppress dissent. This has led to a documented history of Kinetic Impunity and state-sponsored violence.

To understand the current "Accountability Crisis," one must audit the structural mechanisms—such as the Special Powers Act of 1974 and the formation of elite units like RAB—that have allowed state actors to operate outside judicial oversight.

I. Top 10 High-Profile Cases of Government-Led Abuse

1. The Extrajudicial Execution of Siraj Sikder (1975)

The foundational "Signal" of state-sanctioned murder. Siraj Sikder, a revolutionary leader, was arrested by police and killed in custody. His death was famously alluded to in Parliament, marking the first major instance of a government boasting of a custodial killing.

• Source: Siraj Sikder - Wikipedia

2. The Kalpana Chakma Abduction (1996)

A definitive "Disappearance Signal" for indigenous rights. Kalpana Chakma, Organizing Secretary of the Hill Women's Federation, was abducted from her home by security forces just hours before the 1996 elections.

• Source: Kalpana Chakma - Wikipedia

3. Operation Clean Heart (2002–2003)

A joint military-police "Anti-Crime Squeeze." Over 40 individuals died in custody due to torture within 85 days. The government subsequently passed an Indemnity Ordinance, legally shielding the perpetrators from prosecution.

• Source: Operation Clean Heart - Wikipedia

4. The Institutionalization of "Crossfire" (2004–Present)

The formation of the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) in 2004 introduced a "Normalization of Death." RAB became notorious for "Crossfire"—staged gunfights used to cover up extra-judicial executions of suspects already in custody.

• Source: Rapid Action Battalion - Wikipedia

5. The Disappearance of M. Ilias Ali (2012)

The disappearance of this high-ranking BNP leader marked the start of the "White Microbus" era—where political opponents were snatched from the streets in unmarked vans. This remains one of the most high-bandwidth cases of enforced disappearance.

• Source: M Ilias Ali - Wikipedia

6. The 2013 Motijheel Massacre (Shapla Chattar)

Government forces utilized a midnight "Kinetic Squeeze" to clear thousands of activists from the capital. Security forces launched "Operation Flash Out" using tear gas, rubber bullets, and sound grenades, resulting in numerous fatalities.

• Source: 2013 Shapla Square protests - Wikipedia

7. The "War on Drugs" Executions (2018)

Modeled after regional counterparts, the 2018 anti-drug drive saw over 450 extra-judicial killings in a single year. Families reported that victims were often picked up from their homes and killed hours later, with drugs "planted" on the scene.

8. The Murder of Major (Retd) Sinha Sayed Khan (2020)

A retired military officer was shot point-blank at a police checkpoint in Cox's Bazar. This case shattered the "Impunity Shield" because of the victim’s military background, leading to the rare conviction of high-ranking police officers.

9. The "Aynaghar" (House of Mirrors) Scandal (2022–2024)

Whistleblower reports revealed secret, windowless detention centers run by the DGFI (Military Intelligence). Victims were held for years in "Total Sensory Blackout," with many only being released after the 2024 revolution.

• Source: Aynaghar - Wikipedia

10. The 2024 "July Massacre"

The final "Kinetic Squeeze" of the previous regime. During the student uprising, state forces used lethal ammunition and helicopters to fire on protesters, resulting in over 1,000 deaths, including many children.

• Source: 2024 Bangladesh quota reform movement - Wikipedia

II. 2026 Strategic Outlook: Seeking Justice

By December 2025, Bangladesh has entered a "Transition Squeeze." The interim administration has established a Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances, which has already received over 1,850 complaints.

• The Sovereign Goal: To move from "Impunity" to Karama (Dignity), the state must overhaul the Cyber Security Act and disband or completely reform RAB.

• The Judicial Signal: 2026 marks the first year that high-ranking officials face the International Crimes Tribunal for domestic crimes against humanity.

By the end of 2025, Bangladesh has officially crossed the threshold of 120 million internet users. The digital landscape is no longer just a space for social scrolling; it is a Sovereign Utility. While global giants like Google and Facebook command massive bandwidth, the Indo-Pacific Squeeze has forced local Bangladeshi platforms to evolve into sophisticated hubs for news, commerce, and financial services. This list represents the "Systemic Nodes"—the platforms that define how a nation of 170 million people stays informed, stays fed, and stays connected.

1. Prothom Alo (prothomalo.com)

Monthly Visits: ~18.5 Million | Primary Frequency: News & Information

The apex of the Bengali digital media stack. Prothom Alo is not just a newspaper; it is the Sovereign News Signal for the global Bengali diaspora. In 2025/2026, its "Digital-First" architecture has allowed it to outpace every other local competitor, providing real-time audits of political and social shifts.

• The Innovation: Their AI-native "Audio-to-News" feature has captured the massive commuter audience in Dhaka, turning the daily "Gridlock Squeeze" into an opportunity for high-bandwidth news consumption.

• Official Site: https://en.prothomalo.com

2. Daraz Bangladesh (daraz.com.bd)

Monthly Visits: ~4.2 Million | Primary Frequency: E-commerce

The "Marketplace Sovereign." Owned by Alibaba Group, Daraz has successfully digitized the traditional bazaar. By late 2025, it has integrated the "Daraz Mall" as the gold standard for authentic brand verification, solving the "Trust Squeeze" that previously hindered local e-commerce growth.

• The Impact: Its "11.11" and "12.12" campaigns are now official national consumption signals, driving more digital transactions in 24 hours than some sectors see in a quarter.

• Official Site: https://www.daraz.com.bd

3. bKash (bkash.com)

Monthly Visits: ~3.1 Million | Primary Frequency: Mobile Financial Services (MFS)

While primarily an app-based ecosystem, the bKash web portal is the definitive node for merchant integration and institutional financial auditing. It is the "Artery" of the Bangladeshi economy. In 2026, bKash has moved beyond simple transfers into "Embedded Finance," allowing users to audit their micro-savings and insurance directly from their dashboards.

• Official Site: https://www.bkash.com

4. Jugantor (jugantor.com)

Monthly Visits: ~2.8 Million | Primary Frequency: News & Media

The "Alternative Signal." Jugantor maintains a massive footprint by focusing on investigative journalism and regional news that often bypasses the Dhaka-centric media outlets. Its high-traffic "Opinion" section acts as a barometer for the nation's political temperature.

• Official Site: https://www.jugantor.com

5. BDNews24 (bdnews24.com)

Monthly Visits: ~2.4 Million | Primary Frequency: Digital News Agency

The pioneer of the 24/7 digital news cycle in Bangladesh. BDNews24 remains the "Reference Standard" for English-speaking diplomats and analysts. Its clean, no-nonsense UI is designed for the "Speed Squeeze," delivering high-impact headlines without the clutter of traditional tabloid layouts.

• Official Site: https://bdnews24.com

6. Bikroy (bikroy.com)

Monthly Visits: ~2.1 Million | Primary Frequency: Classifieds

The "Second-Life Market." Bikroy is the primary node for the circular economy in Bangladesh. From real estate in Gulshan to used smartphones in Farmgate, Bikroy provides the liquidity for the nation’s secondary assets. Its 2025/2026 "Verified Seller" program has significantly reduced the friction of peer-to-peer trading.

• Official Site: https://bikroy.com

7. The Daily Star (thedailystar.net)

Monthly Visits: ~1.9 Million | Primary Frequency: English News & Analysis

The "Intellectual Anchor." The Daily Star is the most-visited English-language website in the country. It serves as the primary "Bridge Signal" between Bangladesh and the international community, providing in-depth policy audits and cultural commentary that define the nation’s global image.

• Official Site: https://www.thedailystar.net

8. Chaldal (chaldal.com)

Monthly Visits: ~1.5 Million | Primary Frequency: Online Grocery

The "Logistics Engine." Chaldal has solved the "Dhaka Traffic Squeeze" by building a sophisticated network of micro-warehouses (Dark Stores). In 2026, their "Chaldal Vegetable Audit" ensures that fresh produce reaches the consumer within 60 minutes of ordering, making them the most trusted grocery node in the nation.

• Official Site: https://chaldal.com

9. Star Tech (startech.com.bd)

Monthly Visits: ~1.3 Million | Primary Frequency: Tech Retail & Custom Builds

The "Hardware Sovereign." For the Bangladeshi techie, Star Tech is the definitive price-reference and procurement hub. As the nation undergoes a massive "Compute Upgrade" in 2025/2026, this site serves as the primary gateway for high-end components, laptops, and networking hardware.

• Official Site: https://www.startech.com.bd

10. Bangladesh Pratidin (bd-pratidin.com)

Monthly Visits: ~1.2 Million | Primary Frequency: Mass-Market News

The "Populist Signal." Bangladesh Pratidin holds the title of the most-circulated print newspaper, and its web portal mirrors this mass-market reach. It focuses on high-frequency "Viral News" and entertainment, capturing the pulse of the suburban and rural digital population.

• Official Site: https://www.bd-pratidin.com

The 2026 Strategic Conclusion: The Bandwidth of a Nation

The Bangladeshi web in 2026 is a testament to Systemic Resilience. As the government pushes for "Smart Bangladesh 2041," these ten websites are the ones setting the standards for User Experience (UX) and Data Security. The trend is clear: the most successful Bangladeshi sites are those that solve a local physical problem (traffic, grocery quality, financial access) through a digital "Sovereign Portal."

By late December 2025, Prothom Alo is navigating its most significant operational crisis in 27 years. The disruption you are seeing is the result of a coordinated physical assault on its core infrastructure following the death of student leader Sharif Osman Hadi.

1. The Physical and Digital "Blackout" (Dec 18–19)

The primary disruption occurred on the night of December 18, 2025, when a violent mob stormed the Prothom Alo headquarters (Pragati Bhaban) in Karwan Bazar, Dhaka.

• The Sabotage: Assailants looted more than 150 computers and laptops, destroyed server rooms, and intentionally set fire to the building.

• Financial Impact: A police report submitted on December 22 estimated the destruction at Tk 32 crore ($2.7 million), with Tk 2.5 crore in equipment and cash looted.

• The Outage: For the first time since its founding in 1998, the paper failed to publish its print edition on Friday, December 19. The digital portal was forced offline for roughly 17 hours as technical staff fled the building to save their lives.

2. Current Status: Recovery and Resilience (Dec 26)

As of today, Friday, December 26, 2025, the official website is Operational and Secure.

• Site Status: https://www.prothomalo.com is UP and reachable.

• Data Recovery: Technical teams have restored operations using off-site backups and cloud redundancy, despite the physical destruction of their local Network Video Recorders (NVRs) and servers.

• Judicial Action: Cases have been filed under the Anti-Terrorism Act and the Cyber Security Ordinance. As of this week, 17 individuals have been arrested in connection with the attack.

3. The "Cloned Site" Warning

If you are seeing unusual behavior, it is likely not a hack of the main site, but a Phishing Signal.

• The Threat: Prothom Alo recently exposed a network of cloned domains—fake sites masquerading as government services (like myGov) to harvest citizen NID data.

• The Vigilance: Always ensure you are on the "HTTPS" secure version of the site. Any variation in the URL (e.g., https://www.google.com/search?q=prothom-alo-news.com) is a fraudulent "Noise" site designed for data harvesting.

The Strategic Takeaway: Kinetic vs. Digital War

The 2026 reality for global media is that the "Hacking" threat has moved from the screen to the street. The downtime of Prothom Alo was not caused by a code injection, but by the physical removal of the Sovereign Hardware.

For the reader, the "Signal" is clear: the site is currently safe, but the environment remains high-risk. Accessing the news via the official Prothom Alo App is currently the most secure way to bypass potential DNS spoofing or local internet throttling.

Principal Information Sources

Prothom Alo English: Official Statement on the Karwan Bazar Attack

https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/lq7ptonxgq

The Business Standard: Tk 32cr Destruction and Police Case Filing

https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/violent-mob-attack-prothom-alo-causes-tk32cr-destruction-1316726

Times of India: Editor Sajjad Sharif Recounts 'Darkest Night'

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/journalists-were-scared-to-death-bangladesh-newspaper-prothom-alo-goes-unpublished-for-first-time-in-27-years-editor-recounts-darkest-night-of-media-attack/articleshow/126087927.cms

OHCHR: UN Expert Condemns Attack on Prothom Alo and Daily Star

https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/12/bangladesh-un-expert-outraged-violent-attacks-against-daily-star-and-prothom

For over three decades, the political landscape of Bangladesh has been defined by the "Battle of the Begums"—the intense, often violent rivalry between Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League (AL) and Begum Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). While both leaders oversaw periods of significant economic growth, their respective tenures have been marred by allegations of systemic corruption, financial siphoning, and the enrichment of family dynasties.

Following the collapse of the Hasina government in August 2024, new investigations and historical data have shed light on the staggering scale of capital flight and institutional capture under both regimes.

🟢 The Awami League Era (2009–2024): The "Missing Billions"

Under Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year uninterrupted rule, Bangladesh saw unprecedented infrastructure development. However, investigators and the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus now allege that this growth was a facade for deep-seated kleptocracy.

• Estimated Financial Loss: The interim government estimates that between $16 billion and $234 billion was laundered or siphoned out of Bangladesh during Hasina’s tenure. Transparency International UK has identified over £400 million in UK property linked to former AL insiders.  

• The Banking Crisis: Extensive "takeovers" of private banks (most notably S. Alam Group’s alleged control over multiple banks) led to massive loan scams. The central bank estimates billions were siphoned through non-performing loans (NPLs) that rose to 20% of all banking assets by early 2025. 

• Family Beneficiaries:

  • Sajeeb Wazed Joy (Son): Accused by opposition and some international whistleblowers of benefitting from power sector commissions and telecommunications contracts. Allegations surfaced regarding a $50 million bribe related to the MiG-29 purchase during Hasina's first term.

  • Saifuzzaman Chowdhury (Former Minister): A close ally whose UK property empire—reportedly worth over £200 million—is currently under investigation by the UK's National Crime Agency (NCA).  

🟡 The BNP Era (2001–2006): The Rise of "Hawa Bhavan"

The BNP’s second term is often cited by Transparency International as the period when Bangladesh topped the Corruption Perceptions Index for five consecutive years.

• Hawa Bhavan: This became the unofficial "alternative power center" operated by Khaleda Zia’s son, Tarique Rahman. It was alleged that no government contract or business deal could be approved without a "commission" paid to this office.

• The Siemens Scandal: In a rare case of a successful international recovery, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and Singaporean authorities returned nearly $2 million to Bangladesh in 2013. This money was part of a bribe paid by Siemens to Arafat Rahman Koko (Zia’s younger son) to win a telecommunications contract.

• Family Beneficiaries:

  • Tarique Rahman (Son): Convicted in absentia in multiple cases, including the Zia Orphanage Trust case, where he was initially sentenced to 10 years for embezzling 21 million taka ($305,000). He has lived in London since 2008. 

  • Arafat Rahman Koko (Son): Convicted of money laundering related to the Siemens and China Harbor corruption payments.

📊 Comparative Corruption Metrics

🔗 Investigative Dossiers & Sources

Transparency International UK: Returning Bangladesh's Missing Billions (2025 Report)

Financial Times: Bangladesh's Missing Billions: Stolen in Plain Sight

World Bank: Estimating the Effects of Corruption: Implications for Bangladesh

The Guardian: Money Trail: Questions over Deposed Bangladeshi Elite’s £400m UK Empire

US Department of Justice: Forfeiture of Proceeds of Foreign Corruption - Arafat Rahman Koko

The Analyst's Verdict

For international observers, the corruption in Bangladesh is not merely about individual greed but a structural failure of institutional checks and balances.¹⁰ While the Hasina regime utilized "mega-projects" and banking dominance to move vast sums, the Zia regime utilized centralized political "toll gates." In both cases, the losers have been the 170 million citizens whose national wealth has historically been treated as a private treasury.

During the 15-year tenure of the Awami League government (2009–2024), the media landscape in Bangladesh was shaped by a "politico-commercial nexus." Investigative reports following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024, highlight how specific media conglomerates and pro-regime intellectuals allegedly benefited from state patronage, including multi-million dollar asset acquisitions and preferential government funding.

This report examines the entities and individuals identified by the Media Reform Commission and international transparency groups.

The Infrastructure of Influence: Media Conglomerates

Major media licenses were predominantly granted to business groups with close ties to the Awami League. These conglomerates reportedly used their media outlets to secure government contracts and protect diverse business interests ranging from textiles to energy.

1. Key "Regime-Aligned" Networks

Following the regime's collapse, several senior executives and editors faced investigations for alleged incitement and corruption.

• Ekattor TV: Managed by Mozammel Haque Babu, who was arrested in September 2024. The channel was a primary vehicle for the regime's narratives. His bank accounts, along with the channel's institutional accounts, were flagged for investigation by the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit (BFIU).

• Somoy TV: Partly owned by the family of former Awami League Minister Qamrul Islam. It benefited from monopolistic control over advertising mechanisms and television ratings (TRP), which allowed it to capture a disproportionate share of the market. 

• Bhorer Kagoj: Led by Shyamal Dutta, who faced significant legal scrutiny and detention in 2025. Investigations focus on his role in the Jatiya Press Club and alleged use of the publication to suppress student-led dissent. 

2. Alleged Financial Benefits and Funds

Patronage often came through direct state mechanisms and illicit capital flight.

• Journalist Welfare Trust: Critics argue that funds intended for all journalists were often funneled toward pro-regime factions within the Bangladesh Federal Union of Journalists (BFUJ).

• Capital Flight and Real Estate: A 2024/2025 joint investigation by Transparency International UK and The Guardian identified nearly £400 million ($500 million) in UK property owned by influential figures linked to the Hasina regime. This includes mansions in Mayfair and luxury apartments acquired during her tenure.  

• Embezzlement from Mega-Projects: The Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) and international agencies like the FBI allege that the inner circle siphoned billions from projects like the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, with funds routed through offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands and Malaysia. 

The Intellectual Circle: Co-opted Academics

A circle of intellectuals was central to manufacturing public compliance. These figures utilized secular narratives to justify the suppression of opposition and student movements.

Key Figures and Benefits

• Nayeemul Islam Khan: Former Press Secretary to the Prime Minister. In March 2025, the BFIU ordered the freezing of his personal and institutional bank accounts, along with those of his family, over allegations of amassing unexplained wealth.  

• Shahriar Kabir & Muntasir Mamun: Influential in the "Ekattorer Ghatak Dalal Nirmul Committee." They are currently under investigation for allegedly inciting violence and receiving state grants and prime land allocations in Dhaka.  

• Subhash Singha Roy: Frequently used to defend the regime on televised talk shows. He is accused of receiving preferential consultancy roles in state projects.

2025 Media Reforms and Accountability

As of late 2025, the Interim Government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus has initiated the Media Reform Commission to break these monopolies.

Verified Investigative Resources

For researchers verifying legal and financial data, these direct resources provide the underlying evidence:

• Media Reform Commission (Interim Govt): Official Mandate and Findings 2025

• Transparency International UK: Bangladeshi Elite's UK Property Empire Investigation

• International Crimes Tribunal (ICT): Public Case Records and Convictions

• Committee to Protect Journalists: Bangladesh Archives on Press Freedom

For 15 years, while the "connected generation" in Bangladesh struggled with skyrocketing electricity bills and frequent blackouts, a massive web of corruption was siphoning billions out of the country. On December 20, 2025, as the interim government’s "White Paper" on the economy reveals the full extent of the damage, the numbers are nothing short of catastrophic.

According to a government-commissioned review, between 2009 and 2024, an estimated $234 Billion (approx. £180 Billion) was illicitly siphoned from the state—with the energy sector serving as the primary "conduit" for this grand theft.

1. The "Speedy" Law: A Shield for Corruption

The backbone of this heist was the Quick Enhancement of Electricity and Energy Supply (Special Provision) Act 2010, commonly known as the "Indemnity Law."

• The Loophole: This law allowed the government to sign massive energy deals without competitive bidding (tenders).

• The Result: Contracts were handed directly to "crony capitalists" at inflated prices. The review committee, headed by Justice Moinul Islam Chowdhury, confirmed that this law was enacted specifically to facilitate organized corruption.

• Capacity Charges: The government paid over Tk 1.05 trillion ($10–12 Billion) in "capacity charges"—essentially paying private power plants just to stay idle.

2. The Alleged Conspirators & Key Actors

The investigation points to a "nexus" of political elites, high-level bureaucrats, and specific business conglomerates who benefited from these non-competitive deals.

3. Where Did the Money Go? The "Missing Billions"

The laundered funds didn't just disappear; they were moved into luxury real estate and offshore accounts in global financial hubs.

• The UK Property Empire: A joint investigation by The Guardian and Transparency International identified over £400 million in UK property linked to regime insiders.

• The "Hundi" System: Investigators believe the majority of the $16 Billion annual outflow was moved through informal "Hundi" networks to avoid central bank detection.

• Frozen Assets: As of late 2025, the UK's National Crime Agency (NCA) has already frozen approximately £90 million in assets linked to Bangladeshi elites.

4. Impact on the People: 25% Higher Bills

The corruption didn't just affect the government; it hit every Bangladeshi household.

• Inflated Prices: Organized corruption in the power sector caused electricity prices to rise by at least 25%.

• Stranded Capacity: Billions were spent on plants with no fuel supply, leading to massive debt and subsidies while the public suffered from load shedding.

• Industrial Crisis: Today, the textile industry—the backbone of the economy—is operating at only 50% capacity due to the energy debts left behind by the previous administration.

The "Wildcard" to Watch: Yaqeen News™ Investigative

At Yaqeen News™, we are following the money. Our upcoming series, "The Energy Files," will track the specific bank accounts and shell companies used to launder your electricity bills into London mansions. We are committed to "Clarity for the Connected Generation" as Bangladesh fights to recover its stolen billions.

Minimal Sources & Live Data (2025)

• Official Findings: Prothom Alo: Organised corruption in power sector - Review Committee

• Investigative Report: Transparency International UK: Returning Bangladesh's Missing Billions

• Global Exposure: Financial Times: Bangladesh's Missing Billions - Stolen in Plain Sight

• Legal Action: BSS News: ACC files case against S Alam for laundering Tk 10,500 crore

As Bangladesh approaches its first general election of the post-Hasina era on February 12, 2026, the security landscape is characterized by high-intensity volatility. Geopolitical analysts and defense contractors operating in South Asia are monitoring a convergence of domestic insurgency, state-sponsored disruption from abroad, and the potential for a vacuum-driven rise in extremist militancy.

This report provides a strategic breakdown of the actors, motives, and kinetic threats currently facing the interim government's stability.

1. The Pro-Restoration Threat: Awami League Insurgency

The most immediate kinetic threat stems from the remnants of the deposed Awami League (AL) and its student wing, the Chhatra League. Operating both clandestinely within Bangladesh and from command centers in India, these groups are suspected of planning "strategic destabilization."

• The "Shadow Fleet" Strategy: Intelligence suggests that former AL cadres have organized "sleeper cells" tasked with targeting critical infrastructure—specifically the national power grid and rail networks—to induce public discontent ahead of the polls.

• The Cross-Border Factor: The presence of high-profile AL leaders in West Bengal and Tripura (India) has led to accusations of a "Government-in-Exile" facilitating the movement of small arms and funding across the porous 4,000km border.

• Cyber Warfare: Analysts have noted a 400% increase in bot-driven disinformation campaigns originating from foreign IPs, aimed at delegitimizing the Election Commission and inciting sectarian clashes.

2. Extremist Resurgence: IS-K and Neo-JMB

Geopolitical analysts are concerned that the current focus on political restructuring has created a security "blind spot" for transnational terror groups.

• ISIS-Khorasan (IS-K): There is credible intel regarding IS-K attempting to recruit disenfranchised youth by framing the interim government as a "Western puppet." Their targets typically include religious minorities and secular political gatherings to provoke civil unrest.

• Neo-JMB: The local affiliate of the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh is reportedly attempting a comeback. Tactical data suggests they may shift from suicide bombings to "lone-wolf" IED attacks in high-density areas of Dhaka and Chattogram.

3. Geopolitical Interests and State Actors

Bangladesh's strategic position in the Bay of Bengal makes it a theater for regional power plays, with various nations holding significant "security stakes" in the election outcome.

4. Tactical Warnings for 2026

Defense and intelligence observers should prioritize the following indicators of escalating violence:

1. Weaponization of Protests: Political rallies are expected to be infiltrated by "agent provocateurs" using Molotov cocktails and artisanal explosives to trigger heavy-handed police responses.

2. Targeted Assassinations: Intel reports suggest a list of "high-value targets," including interim advisers and student leaders, designed to decapitate the current leadership structure.

3. Border Tensions: A "false flag" border incident could be used as a pretext for regional intervention or to justify a declaration of emergency, delaying the February elections.

5. Summary for Human Rights Defenders and Analysts

The impunity once enjoyed by the previous regime's security forces has left a fragile security apparatus. Human rights organizations warn that "counter-terrorism" efforts in the lead-up to February must not be used as a blanket excuse for extrajudicial actions, which would only serve to further radicalize the population.

The success of the 2026 elections depends entirely on the interim government's ability to dismantle the cross-border funding conduits and secure the maritime borders from illegal arms shipments.

Should the international community consider deploying a specialized UN peacekeeping observation force to mitigate the risk of state-sponsored electoral violence?

🔗 Geopolitical Sources & Defense Briefings:

1. Jane's: South Asia Security Sentinel - Bangladesh Election Risk Assessment 2026

2. Crisis Group: Red Alert - Navigating Bangladesh’s Political Transition

3. Institute for the Study of War (ISW): Tracking Extremist Mobilization in the Bay of Bengal

4. Bangladesh Ministry of Home Affairs: National Security Threat Assessment (Interim Brief)

5. Nikkei Asia: How the India-Bangladesh Standoff Shapes Regional Stability

On the night of February 11, 2012, in a quiet flat in West Rajabazar, Dhaka, the heart of Bangladeshi journalism was ripped out. Sagar Sarowar, news editor at Maasranga TV, and his wife Meherun Runi, a senior reporter at ATN Bangla, were brutally stabbed to death.

They were not alone. Their four-year-old son, Mahir Sarowar Megh, was present, discovering his parents' bodies in the early morning light—a trauma that remains one of the most heartbreaking images in the history of the nation. As of December 19, 2025, thirteen years have passed. The investigation has been deferred a staggering 122 times. No one has been charged. No motive has been officially confirmed.

The "High-Profile" Motive: What Were They About to Publish?

Rumors have persisted for over a decade that the couple was murdered not by "grill-cutting burglars," but by a professional "killer squad." At the time of their deaths, Sagar and Runi were reportedly investigating corruption in Bangladesh’s energy sector—a multi-billion dollar industry involving high-ranking politicians and government officials.

• The Missing Evidence: Following the murders, Sagar’s two laptops and mobile phone—containing his research and an unfinished book on the militarized Chittagong Hill Tracts—were the only items stolen.

• The ATN Bangla Connection: Rumors heavily implicated Mahfuzur Rahman, Chairman of ATN Bangla (Runi's employer). Rahman drew nationwide fury when he claimed in London that the murders were the result of an "extramarital affair"—a statement journalists saw as a deliberate attempt to deflect from political motives. Despite intense protests demanding his arrest, he was only recently interrogated by the PBI in late 2024.

A Masterclass in Deliberate Failure: Authorities and Impunity

The investigation into the Sagar-Runi murder is a textbook example of institutionalized impunity. The "errors" made by authorities were so consistent they appeared choreographed to ensure the truth never surfaced.

1. The "48-Hour" Promise

Then-Home Minister Sahara Khatun famously promised to catch the killers within 48 hours. When that deadline passed, the narrative shifted. Authorities eventually claimed that journalists and onlookers had "destroyed evidence" at the crime scene before police arrived—a convenient excuse for a botched initial forensics sweep.

2. The Deferral Circus

The case has been passed from the Detective Branch (DB) to the elite Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), and finally to the Police Bureau of Investigation (PBI) in late 2024.

• 122 Extensions: The court has granted extension after extension. In any functioning judicial system, 122 delays would be seen as a collapse of the rule of law.

• The DNA Dead-End: Samples were sent to the US for testing in 2012. Results showed the presence of two "outsiders," yet no matches were ever made or pursued aggressively among high-profile suspects.

3. State-Sponsered Silence

The case mirrors the tragic reality of Gaza’s journalists, where the killers of members of the press operate with total impunity. In Bangladesh, this impunity wasn't enforced by bombs, but by bureaucratic paralysis. By failing to solve this case, the state sent a clear message to all investigative reporters: Some secrets are worth more than your life.

The Human Cost: A Child Without Answers

The most tragic figure in this saga is Megh, the son who is now a young man. He has grown up in a country that celebrated his parents’ work but refused to find their killers. In late 2024, Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus met with Megh, gifting him a plot of land—a gesture of state sympathy, but one that many say is a poor substitute for the justice his family is owed.

The Verdict of History

As the 2026 elections approach, the Sagar-Runi case remains the ultimate litmus test for the interim government. Will the PBI task force finally submit a report by the new January 5, 2026 deadline, or will it be extension number 123?

Until the masterminds behind the West Rajabazar massacre are brought to light, the "freedom of the press" in Bangladesh remains a hollow phrase, written in the blood of two of its finest.

Do you believe the recent political shift in Bangladesh will finally allow the truth about the energy sector "killer squads" to be revealed?

🔗 Investigative Sources:

▪️ BSS: Probe report in Sagar-Runi murder case set for January 5, 2026

▪️ Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ): Profile of Meherun Runi and Investigation Motives

▪️ Prothom Alo: 13 years of Sagar-Runi murder case - Almost no investigation for six years

▪️ The Daily Star: High Court orders high-powered task force for Sagar-Runi case