Yaqeen Blog

In the dying weeks before the February 12, 2026, General Election, Bangladesh is no longer just a neighbor to India; it is becoming a strategic fortress for a new kind of regional defiance. The BBC interview with Md. Touhid Hossain wasn't just diplomatic small talk—it was a declaration of independence from New Delhi’s decades-long shadow.

Time is the ultimate judge of power, and right now, time is running out for the "Old Guard" in South Asia.

The Intelligence Breakdown: A Multipolar Pivot

Western intelligence—from the CIA to MI6—is quietly recalibrating its map of the Bay of Bengal. The "Golden Era" of India-Bangladesh relations died the moment Sheikh Hasina fled to New Delhi in 2024. What we are seeing in 2026 is a strategic divorce.

• The Defense Rapprochement: Bangladesh is currently in advanced talks to procure JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan—a move that would have been unthinkable two years ago. This isn't just about hardware; it's about signaled intent. By integrating Pakistani training and Chinese technology, Dhaka is building a military that doesn't rely on Indian goodwill.

• The "Islamic Bloc" Resurgence: The U.S. State Department is reportedly "opening doors" to the Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s largest Islamist party. While India views Jamaat as a direct security threat, the West is pragmatically betting on them as a key player in a post-Hasina democracy. The West sees a "shifted Islamic" Bangladesh and is choosing to manage it rather than fight it.

The Minority Crisis: Fact vs. Narrative

The issue of attacks on minorities (Hindus) in Bangladesh is the most volatile "information war" of 2026.

• The Indian Claim: New Delhi asserts that Hindu communities are being systematically targeted by extremists empowered by the interim government.

• The Dhaka Defense: Hossain argues these reports are allegedly exaggerated to provide a pretext for Indian intervention.

• The Western View: Human Rights Watch has noted a rise in violence, but Western diplomats are wary of the "victim narrative" being used as a tool for "grey-zone warfare." They see a fractured state where crime is high, but they aren't ready to brand the interim government as "anti-minority" just yet.

Strategic Consequences: The Siliguri Chokepoint

For the deep-thinkers, the real game is the Siliguri Corridor (the "Chicken's Neck"). This 22km wide strip of land connects mainland India to its eight northeastern states.

• The Vulnerability: If the 2026 election results in a government that is openly hostile to India, New Delhi loses its "strategic depth." Reports already suggest the ISI (Pakistan’s intelligence) has established covert hubs in Bangladeshi border districts.

• The Economic War: The recent cancellation of transshipment agreements and the suspension of the Ganges Water Treaty talks have turned the border into a friction point. For the West, this instability threatens the Ready-Made Garment (RMG) supply chain, which accounts for 20% of exports to the U.S.

The "G" Analysis: Time and Truth

History shows that when a small nation is squeezed between giants, it eventually strikes out to find air. Bangladesh is currently striking out. The Feb 12 election isn't just about choosing a Prime Minister; it’s a referendum on whether Bangladesh will remain an Indian "satellite" or become a sovereign node in a China-Pakistan-West triangle.

The West is watching with cold eyes. They don't care about "history" or "1971." They care about stability and access. If the interim government can deliver a "fair" election that keeps the garments flowing and the extremists managed, the West will abandon India’s concerns in a heartbeat.

The truth is simple: In 2026, loyalty is a luxury, and leverage is the only currency that matters.

As of January 21, 2026, the world’s eyes are on Dhaka. In exactly 22 days, on February 12, 2026, Bangladesh will hold its first national election since the 2024 Monsoon Revolution. For the diplomatic community, this is not just a vote; it is a Hard Reset for the country’s stability. However, beneath the promise of democracy lies a serious threat of violence. Current intel suggests that the weeks surrounding the election will be the most dangerous period in the country's recent history.

1. The Volatility Index: Why February 12th is a Powder Keg

The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus, is attempting a transition while the former ruling party, the Awami League (AL), remains officially barred from the contest. This has created a massive political vacuum that rival factions are desperate to fill.

The Rejectionist Front

The Awami League has officially rejected the February 12th date, calling it illegal. Supporters of the deposed regime have vowed to block the polls. This creates a high risk of "street-level" battles between loyalists of the old regime and the newer political forces like the National Citizen Party (NCP).

The Assassination Spike

Violence has already claimed high-profile victims. In mid-December 2025, prominent youth leader Osman Hadi was shot in Dhaka. His death, which occurred in a Singapore hospital on December 18, triggered a wave of national mourning and riots. The fact that the Dhaka Metropolitan Police identified suspects as active members of the former ruling party has only deepened the anger on the streets.

Anti-India Sentiment

Tensions with New Delhi are at an all-time high. Following the death of Osman Hadi, protests targeted Indian diplomatic missions in Chattogram and Rajshahi. The situation has become so grave that just yesterday, January 20, 2026, the Indian government began a precautionary evacuation of the families and dependents of its diplomats from the High Commission in Dhaka and other assistant missions.

2. The Islamist Factor: Sleeper Cells and the "Shadow" Alliance

There is significant concern regarding the resurgence of Islamist extremist groups like Ansar al-Islam and Hizb ut-Tahrir. Intelligence reports suggest these groups are exploiting the current security vacuum to reorganize.

The "Looted Arms" Threat

During the 2024 revolution, over 5,750 firearms and nearly 652,000 rounds of ammunition were looted from police stations. While elite units like the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) have recovered some pieces—including recent seizures in Cumilla—over 5,000 military-grade weapons remain missing. On January 20, the Chief Adviser himself ordered that these weapons must be recovered "by any means" before the election. These arms are almost certainly in the hands of "sleeper cells" or political militias.

The Deposed Regime’s Wildcard

There is credible suspicion that elements of the deposed regime may be providing financial support to these radical cells. The goal is to cause enough "havoc" to prove that the current government cannot maintain order, thereby making the election results look invalid to the international community.

3. The Likelihood of Violence: A Three-Phase Forecast

The Pre-Election Phase (Now until February 11)

The risk is considered Extreme. Campaigning officially begins tomorrow, January 22. We expect to see bombings of polling centers, arson targeting media houses, and widespread "Hartals" (strikes). The "Inqilab Mancha" and other radical groups have already threatened to march on diplomatic zones.

Election Day (February 12)

The risk is Severe. Experts anticipate "booth jamming" and digital blackouts. There is a high probability of localized lynchings and clashes between the student-led "July Oikya Mancho" and armed groups intent on stopping the vote.

The Post-Election Phase (February 13 – March 2026)

The risk remains Extreme. If the election proceeds without the Awami League, their supporters may launch a long-term insurgency. Conversely, if the results are seen as rigged by the remaining parties like the BNP, the streets of Dhaka could see a repeat of the 2024 violence.

4. Strategic Advice for Diplomats and Government Officials

The Hard Reset in Bangladesh is fragile. If the election fails due to violence, the country risks sliding into a long-term "Grey Zone" of instability.

• De-Risk Personnel: Follow the Indian lead. Ensure non-essential staff and dependents are out of the country before the heavy campaigning begins this week.

• Monitor the July Charter: The election is happening alongside a referendum on the July Charter (constitutional reform). Any violence targeted at this referendum is a direct attack on the new legal foundation of the country.

• Watch the Military: The Bangladesh Army is currently the only stabilizing force. Their ability to recover the looted weapons in the next 20 days will be the biggest indicator of whether February 12th will be a democratic milestone or a bloody disaster.

The Essence:

Violence is not just a possibility; it is highly probable. The combination of thousands of missing military weapons, resurgent sleeper cells, and a deposed regime with nothing to lose creates a perfect storm for February 2026.