Yaqeen Blog

The diplomatic landscape of South Asia is currently experiencing a seismic shift. In Bangladesh, a youth-led revolution has transformed from a domestic uprising into a tense international standoff with India. Simultaneously, thousands of miles away, the Canadian government has leveled unprecedented charges against Indian state actors.

Part 1: The Bangladesh Tinderbox (December 2025)

The fall of the Awami League government in August 2024 has left a vacuum filled by deep-seated resentment toward India. For the protesting students of Dhaka, India is not just a neighbor, but an active participant in the suppression of their democracy.

The Extradition Crisis: Sheikh Hasina

Following her conviction in absentia for crimes against humanity, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina remains in India. This has become the primary flashpoint for the "July Oikya" (July Unity) movement.

• The Ultimatum: Protesters have demanded Hasina’s extradition by December 25, 2025, threatening to storm diplomatic missions if the deadline is not met.

• Incendiary Rhetoric: Dhaka has formally protested against Hasina allegedly using Indian soil to release audio clips inciting her supporters to "terrorist acts" to disrupt the upcoming February 12, 2026, elections.

The Martyrdom of Sharif Osman Hadi

The death of youth leader Sharif Osman Hadi in December 2025 has become the George Floyd moment for the Bangladeshi "Gen Z."

• The Allegation: Protesters and the interim government claim the assailants who shot Hadi were Awami League fugitives protected by Indian intelligence. 

• The Escape: There are widespread accusations that Indian agencies facilitated the escape of the primary suspect, Faisal Karim Masud, across the border to evade justice.

Part 2: The Canadian Connection—Transnational Repression

While Bangladesh accuses India of harboring political fugitives, Canada has accused India of the opposite: using criminal proxies to eliminate political dissidents on foreign soil.

The "Bishnoi Gang" Allegations

In a series of explosive reports throughout late 2024 and 2025, the RCMP (Royal Canadian Mounted Police) and federal officials have linked Indian government agents to the Lawrence Bishnoi organized crime network.

• The Mechanism: Intelligence gathered by Indian diplomats on Sikh activists (specifically those supporting the Khalistan movement) was allegedly passed to the Bishnoi gang to carry out extortions and assassinations.

• The Victims: This network has been tied to the 2023 murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar and more recent violent incidents in Brampton and Mississauga in mid-2025.

• The Order: Canadian officials have publicly named senior Indian cabinet members as being aware of, or directing, these operations—a claim India dismisses as "absurd and motivated."

Part 3: The Unifying Theme—Intelligence as a Political Tool

Whether in Dhaka or Ottawa, the accusations share a common DNA: the alleged use of intelligence apparatuses to influence internal political outcomes.

The Diplomatic Fallout

The consequences of these investigations are already visible:

1. Visa Suspensions: India has indefinitely suspended visa services in several Bangladeshi cities due to security threats.

2. Expulsions: Canada and India have engaged in "tit-for-tat" expulsions of high-ranking diplomats, reducing missions to a skeletal staff.

3. Global Trust Deficit: For the first time, India’s reputation as a "responsible democratic power" is being questioned by its closest Western allies (the Five Eyes) and its most vital neighbors.

As we head into the 2026 Bangladesh elections, can the region stabilize if the "Hasina Factor" remains unresolved?

🔗 Investigative Sources & Official Documents:

▪️ Al Jazeera: Protests Escalate in Bangladesh After Death of Hadi

▪️ The Pointer: Sikhs Targeted by Indian-Backed Criminal Groups in Canada

▪️ UK Parliament: The Fall of the Hasina Government and Recent Developments

▪️ UN News: Bangladesh Protests Probe Reveals Systematic Repression

▪️ The Hindu: Why the Death of Sharif Osman Hadi Has Triggered a Crisis

The political landscape of South Asia underwent a seismic shift in August 2024 when Sheikh Hasina, the world’s longest-serving female head of government, fled Dhaka. While her tenure was long celebrated by international investors for "the Bangladesh miracle"—a period of rapid GDP growth and infrastructure expansion—the sudden collapse of her 15-year rule has exposed a grim reality. What has emerged is a staggering ledger of enforced disappearances, systematic human rights violations, and a transnational web of financial fraud involving the Awami League and their global associates.

The Human Cost: Enforced Disappearances and "Aynaghar"

For over a decade, the term "Aynaghar" (The House of Mirrors) haunted the Bangladeshi collective consciousness. Human rights organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have documented a relentless campaign of extrajudicial killings and secret detentions. Security forces, specifically the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), are alleged to have functioned as the regime's enforcement wing to silence dissent.

The victims were not just political rivals but also their families. High-profile cases include Amaan Azmi (son of Ghulam Azam) and the British-trained barrister Ahmad bin Quasem, both of whom were snatched from their homes in 2016 and disappeared into secret cells for years. The current International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) proceedings in 2025 are now seeking the extradition of former military commanders to answer for these crimes against humanity.

Financial Plunder: The $200 Billion Drain

The humanitarian crisis was shadowed by a financial scandal of unprecedented scale. Global investigators are currently tracing an estimated $234 billion siphoned out of Bangladesh during the Hasina era. The scheme allegedly involved inflated "mega-project" costs—notably the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant—and the systemic "bleeding" of state-owned banks.

The probe has brought intense scrutiny to the "First Family" and their inner circle:

• Sheikh Rehana: Hasina’s sister has been a focal point of investigations regarding government land-grabs and the movement of capital into overseas real estate.

• Tulip Siddiq MP: The British Labour MP and former City Minister (and niece of Sheikh Hasina) resigned from her UK government post in early 2025 following intense ethics probes. While she denies wrongdoing, investigators are looking into her alleged influence in facilitating British-Bangladeshi business deals and her mother's luxury property holdings in London.

• Sajeeb Wazed Joy: Hasina’s son and former ICT advisor is under investigation by the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) for his links to offshore accounts and his role in the digital "surveillance state" that underpinned the regime.

• Private Interest: Conglomerates like Beximco Group (Salman F. Rahman) and S Alam Group are accused of effectively "capturing" the banking sector to fund portfolios in Mayfair, London, and Singapore.

India’s Geopolitical Gamble

The survival of the Hasina regime was inextricably linked to the unwavering support of New Delhi. For years, the Modi administration viewed Hasina as the sole guarantor of regional stability and a bulwark against Islamist extremism. This "linear" foreign policy favored Indian strategic interests—such as transit rights and energy deals—often at the cost of turning a blind eye to democratic erosion.

However, this patronage has fostered deep-seated "India Out" sentiments among the Bangladeshi youth. By late 2025, Indian diplomats have begun a delicate recalibration, acknowledging that by propping up a single party, they may have alienated the next generation of Bangladeshi leaders.

The Road to Accountability

As Bangladesh navigates its transition under the interim leadership of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the demand for justice is absolute. For the international community and geopolitical analysts, the "Hasina Saga" serves as a stark warning: the perceived stability of an autocrat is rarely a substitute for the rule of law.

Sources

◌ United Nations News: Bangladesh Prosecutions for Enforced Disappearances

◌ Transparency International UK: £400 Million Property Scandal Investigation

◌ The Guardian: Tulip Siddiq Resigns Amid Bangladesh Corruption Probe

◌ Al Jazeera: The 'India Out' Campaign and Regional Recalibration