Yaqeen Blog

In a world where many nations are becoming more religious, Tajikistan is moving in the exact opposite direction. Despite over 95% of the population being Muslim, the government—led by President Emomali Rahmon since 1992—has spent the last decade passing laws that make it feel like Islam is under a permanent microscope.

In June 2024, this reached a peak with Law No. 2048, which officially banned the hijab and other "alien garments" that do not align with traditional Tajik culture.

1. The "Beard and Hijab" Surveillance

The state’s control over appearance isn't just a suggestion; it is enforced by police raids and heavy fines.

• For Men: Having a long beard is viewed as a sign of "extremism." In recent years, police have reportedly stopped men on the street and forcibly shaved them. Young men are generally expected to be clean-shaven to hold jobs or receive passports.

• For Women: The hijab (specifically the style that covers the neck and chest) is banned in schools, hospitals, and government buildings. Authorities promote the "Tajik style" of headscarf, which is tied behind the neck, leaving the throat visible.

• Fines: Wearing "alien" (Islamic or Western) clothing can result in fines of up to 7,920 somoni ($730) for individuals—a massive amount in a country where the average monthly salary is often less than $200.

2. Why Does a Muslim Government Fight Islam?

To many outsiders, this seems like a contradiction. Why would a Muslim leader restrict his own faith?

1. Fear of the "Afghan Effect": Tajikistan shares a long border with Afghanistan. The government is terrified that radical ideas will leak across the border and lead to a civil war, similar to the one that killed 100,000 Tajiks in the 1990s.

2. Secularism as Power: The regime uses "Secularism" to ensure that no religious leader becomes more popular than the President. By controlling how people look and pray, the state ensures it remains the only "God" in the eyes of the law.

3. Nationalism: The government wants to create a "Tajik Identity" that is separate from the wider Islamic world. They want citizens to identify with their ancestors and their language first, and their religion second.

3. Living Under the Microscope

The surveillance goes far beyond just clothing. In 2026, religious life in Tajikistan is strictly scheduled:

• No Kids in Mosques: Under the "Parental Responsibility Law," anyone under 18 is generally banned from attending mosque services.

• Approved Sermons: Imams are state employees. Their Friday sermons are often written or approved by the government to ensure they don't say anything "political."

• Loudspeakers Banned: In many cities, the Adhan (call to prayer) is no longer allowed to be played over external loudspeakers.

• Holiday Restrictions: Children are now banned from the tradition of Idgardak—going door-to-door to collect sweets during Eid—because the state views it as "non-Tajik."

4. Analysis: Does Surveillance Work?

While the government says these rules keep the country safe from terrorism, many human rights experts argue it actually does the opposite.

"By banning moderate religious expression, you push people into the shadows. When people can't learn their faith in a mosque, they go to the dark corners of the internet, where they are much easier to radicalize."

For all races and religions, the Tajikistan case is a fascinating look at State vs. Spirit. It asks the question: Can a government successfully change the identity of its people through laws and scissors, or does faith simply grow stronger when it is forced underground?

Verified Research & Global Reports

• Amnesty International: Tajikistan 2024 Human Rights Report

• Library of Congress: New Law Bans Hijab and Limits Religious Celebrations

• USCIRF: The Repression of Religious Freedom in Tajikistan (2025 Update)

In George Carlin’s 1999 special You Are All Diseased, he delivers a legendary rant about the "Illusion of Safety." Carlin uses his trademark "Real Power" as a writer to show that most of the things we do to stay safe are actually just "Moral Theater"—actions that make us feel better but don't actually protect us.

Here is the simple breakdown of his message:

1. The Germ Theory: Our Weak Immune Systems

Carlin begins by attacking our obsession with cleanliness. He notices that everyone is suddenly terrified of germs, constantly using hand sanitizer and overcooking their food.

• The "Standard Script" of Cleanliness: He argues that by living in a completely sterile world, we are actually making our bodies weaker. He says our immune systems are like a "biological military" that needs practice to stay strong.

• The Hudson River Story: He shares a famous (and gross) story about how he and his friends used to swim in the raw sewage of the Hudson River as kids. His "Diagnostic" is simple: because they were exposed to so much "junk," they developed incredibly strong immune systems that never got sick.

2. Airport Security: Security Theater

Recorded two years before 9/11, Carlin’s take on airport security was incredibly ahead of its time. He calls it "The Illusion of Safety."

• Pointless Rules: He mocks the questions security guards ask, like "Did you pack your own bags?" He argues that a real terrorist isn't going to say "Yes" to that.

• The Loss of Liberty: Carlin explains that we are willing to trade our real freedom for a "feeling" of being safe. He views this as a "Managed Choice" by the government to keep people submissive and easy to control.

3. The Obsession with Safety Labels

Carlin ridicules how we need warning labels for everything. He mentions how people are now afraid of the sun, their food, and even their own shadows.

• "Minor Risks": He points out that while the media makes us panic about tiny risks like food poisoning, we ignore the "Real Power" problems in society.

• The Verdict on Fear: He believes that "Fear" is the main product being sold to the public. If you are scared, you are easier to sell things to and easier to govern.

The Essence: Life is Not Safe

The main takeaway of the skit is that life is inherently risky, and trying to eliminate every possible danger is a "Subhuman" way to live. Carlin’s message is that we should stop being afraid, embrace a little dirt, and stop letting the government and media use fear to take away our common sense. He wants us to see through the "Invisible Empire" of rules and realize that a little danger is what makes us human.

In the history of "Real Power" and its darkest uses, the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) is a diagnostic of how hate can be organized into a weapon. Founded in 1865 by a group of Confederate veterans in Tennessee, this secret society was never just a social club. It was a paramilitary force built to maintain white supremacy through a "Moral Theater" of masks, hoods, and violence. For 150 years, the Klan has been a shadow over American life, rising and falling in waves whenever it felt its power was threatened.

The Three Waves of Hatred

The KKK’s history is not one long line, but three distinct bursts of activity. Each time, they used a "Standard Script" of intimidation to control those they considered "lesser."

1. The First Wave (1865–1872): This was a reaction to the end of slavery. The Klan functioned as a terrorist wing for those who wanted to destroy the newly gained rights of Black Americans. They used night raids and lynchings to stop Black people from voting or owning land.

2. The Second Wave (1915–1944): Reborn after the movie The Birth of a Nation, the Klan became a massive political machine. At its peak in the mid-1920s, it had between 3 million and 5 million members—about 3% to 5% of the entire U.S. population at the time. They expanded their hate to include immigrants, Jews, and Catholics.

3. The Third Wave (1950s–Present): This wave rose to fight the Civil Rights Movement. They used "Managed Escalation"—bombs, beatings, and murders—to try and stop the end of segregation.

The Statistics of Horror

The "Real Power" of the Klan was measured in blood. History provides a chilling diagnostic of the violence carried out in the name of the "Invisible Empire":

• Total Lynchings: Between 1882 and 1968, there were 4,743 documented lynchings in the United States. Of these, 3,446 (about 73%) of the victims were Black Americans.

• Voter Suppression: In some counties during Reconstruction, the Black vote went from over 1,000 to zero in a single year because of Klan threats.

• The 1920s Peak: In 1925, nearly 40,000 Klansmen marched openly down Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C., showing how deep their influence had reached into the government.

The Disturbing Silence and the End of Impunity

For a century, the Klan operated with a level of impunity that is hard to imagine today. In many Southern towns, the local police, judges, and mayors were members of the Klan. This created a system of Corruption and Hate where a crime committed under a white hood was never "solved" because the people in charge were the ones wearing the hoods.

However, the "Real Power" of the law eventually began to fight back. The Ku Klux Klan Act of 1871 allowed the federal government to use the military against them. Later, in the 1960s, high-profile FBI investigations and civil rights lawsuits began to bankrupt the groups and put their leaders behind bars.

The Lesson for 2026

History will judge the KKK as a subhuman failure of the American dream. They proved that when hate is given a costume and a script, it can poison an entire nation. Today, while the Klan is small and fractured, the "Invisible Empire" remains a warning. It shows that "Real Power" should never be used to exclude or terrorize, and that the only way to keep the "demons" from returning is through constant truth-telling and a refusal to let the masks of hate back into the light.

If you think modern politics is a massive "L," the 1982 Yes Minister episode "The Whisky Priest" proves that the "Real Power" playbook hasn't changed. It is a perfect diagnostic of how the government "vibe checks" itself and decides that staying in power is more important than literally anything else—including saving lives. In the 1982 Yes Minister episode "The Whisky Priest," Minister Jim Hacker discovers a "Real Power" scandal: British-made electronic bomb triggers (the "calculator for assassination") have been sold to Italian terrorists. This scene is a perfect "diagnostic" of how governments use Evasive Diplomacy to protect their interests over their morals.

For a younger generation, this episode isn't just "old British comedy"—it’s a masterclass in how the "Sitcom" of politics actually works.

"Order vs. Chaos"

When Hacker finds out about the arms deal, he is horrified. He wants to be the hero, the "Truth-Teller." But his Permanent Secretary, Sir Humphrey Appleby, shuts him down with a clinical breakdown of how the world really works.

• The "Meticulous Scrutiny" Lie: The government officially says every arms deal is checked perfectly. To admit a mistake would be to admit the system is broken. Humphrey explains that the "Official Line" must be upheld at all costs to keep the public calm.

• The Job Description: Humphrey famously tells Hacker that "Good and Evil" is a "Church of England problem." For the government, the only choice is between Order and Chaos.

• The Managed Opening: Humphrey argues that if the UK doesn't sell the weapons, someone else (like the French or the Russians) will. This is a classic "Real Power" move: justifying an immoral act by saying your rivals are worse.

The "Moral Theater" of the Chief Whip

The funniest and darkest part of the scene happens when the Chief Whip (the government’s "enforcer") visits Hacker. He doesn't use logic; he uses Calculated Provocation to bully Hacker into staying silent.

• The Numbers Game: The Whip argues that terrorists only kill a few people, whereas a "Government Crisis" could kill thousands through economic collapse or war. He makes Hacker feel like a "small-minded" person for caring about a few victims when "The Party" is at risk.

• The "Whisky Priest" Label: He calls Hacker a "Whisky Priest"—someone who knows what is right but is too weak to actually do it. It’s a way of making Hacker feel guilty for having a conscience.

The "Rhodesia Solution" (The Fake Fix)

By the end, Hacker realizes he is trapped. He has promised an investigation, but the government won't let him have one. His secretary, Bernard, suggests the "Rhodesia Solution" (based on real-life UK sanctions busting in the 1970s).

○ The Strategy: You write a letter "reporting" the crime, but you send it to someone you know will ignore it or "lose" it. This way, if the story leaks, you can say, "I reported it!" but the "Real Power" deal still goes through.

○ The Result: The weapons keep flowing, the terrorists keep buying, and the Minister keeps his job. The "Moral Theater" is saved, and the "Managed Ambiguity" continues.

Why It Still Matters in 2026

The "Whisky Priest" episode is an overview of every modern "National Security" scandal. Whether it’s selling surveillance tech to dictators or ignoring "Red Lines" in war zones, the script remains the same:

1. Deny it happened.

2. Deflect by saying "the other guys are worse."

3. Deploy the "Whisky Priest" defense—acting like you’re doing the "courageous" thing by being immoral for the "greater good."

As of late December 2025, the global "Security Squeeze" has reached a tipping point. While the West has seen a 63% jump in incidents—primarily driven by lone-actor shifts—the "Epicenter of Violence" remains firmly anchored in the Sahel and the Levant. According to the 2025 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) data, 98% of terrorism-related deaths now occur in active conflict zones. These ten incidents represent the most significant "Kinetic Disruptors" of the year, audited for their casualty counts, structural impact, and geopolitical fallout.

This list examines the "Critical Failures" in global security and the brutal efficiency of modern non-state actors.

🔵 1. The Kobé Convoy Massacre (Mali)

Date: February 7, 2025 | Casualties: 54 Dead, 34 Injured

The deadliest single event of the first quarter. Jihadists from the Islamic State – Sahel Province ambushed a convoy of vehicles near Kobé in the Gao Region.

• The Intelligence Signal: The attack targeted a mix of foreigners and local security forces. It underscored the "Mali Squeeze," where the state’s inability to secure transit corridors has turned the nation's infrastructure into a hunting ground for IS-affiliates.

• Wikipedia: Kobé attack

🟢 2. The New Orleans New Year’s Day Truck Attack (USA)

Date: January 1, 2025 | Casualties: 14 Dead, 57 Injured

In a "Black Swan" event for U.S. domestic security, an individual pledged to the Islamic State drove a heavy-duty truck into crowds celebrating the New Year.

• The Strategy: This was a high-impact "Lone Actor" incident using a rented vehicle as a kinetic weapon. It triggered a massive federal audit of vehicle-rental security protocols and fueled a 2025 surge in domestic surveillance spending.

• Wikipedia: 2025 New Orleans truck attack

🟡 3. The Point Triple Border Offensive (Benin)

Date: January 8, 2025 | Casualties: 30 Dead (Soldiers)

Gunmen from Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) launched a coordinated strike on military positions at the "Point Triple"—the junction where Benin, Niger, and Burkina Faso meet.

• The Squeeze: This attack represents the "Southern Drift" of the Sahelian insurgency into coastal West African states. It forced the 2025 "Accra Initiative" to shift from a diplomatic forum to a high-readiness military alliance.

• Wikipedia: 2025 Point Triple attack

🟣 4. The April Jammu & Kashmir War-Trigger Attack (India/Pakistan)

Date: April 2025 | Casualties: Massive Military/Civilian (Leading to War)

A major IED and firearms assault in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir targeted a high-value military convoy, killing dozens of personnel.

• The Kinetic Pivot: This wasn't just an attack; it was a "Casus Belli." It triggered a four-day conventional war between India and Pakistan, the most serious escalation between the two nuclear powers in 25 years.

• Wikipedia: Insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir

🟠 5. The Rann IED Truck Bombing (Nigeria)

Date: April 24, 2025 | Casualties: 26 Dead

A civilian truck hit a massive IED planted by ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) near the border town of Rann in Borno State.

• The Audit: This incident highlighted the "Mining of the North," where extremist groups use improvised landmines to create "No-Go Zones," effectively strangling the local agricultural economy and causing a regional food squeeze.

• Wikipedia: Boko Haram insurgency

🔴 6. The June Israel-Iran Direct Flashpoint (Israel/Iran)

Date: June 2025 | Casualties: Hundreds (State-led and Proxy)

While technically a brief "Inter-State War," the period was defined by a series of extraordinary terror-style attacks on nuclear infrastructure and military leadership, culminating in the first direct U.S. military intervention in Iran since 1980.

• The Signal: This marked the end of the "Proxy Era" and the beginning of "Direct Kinetic Engagement."

• Wikipedia: Iran–Israel proxy conflict

🟤 7. The Darul Uloom Haqqania Suicide Bombing (Pakistan)

Date: February 28, 2025 | Casualties: 7 Dead, 20 Injured

A suicide bomber targeted the Friday prayers at the famous Haqqania seminary in Akora Khattak, killing the prominent cleric Hamid Ul Haq Haqqani.

• The Ideological Squeeze: This was an "Inter-Insurgent Audit," where more radical factions targeted the traditional religious leadership of the TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan), leading to a massive internal power struggle within the Pakistani militant landscape.

• Wikipedia: Terrorism in Pakistan

🔘 8. The N'Djamena Presidential Palace Raid (Chad)

Date: January 8, 2025 | Casualties: 20 Dead (Attackers and Security)

In a bold "Decapitation Attempt," 24 armed men alleged to be Boko Haram militants attacked the vicinity of the Presidential Palace in the Chadian capital.

• The Power Squeeze: Although the raid failed to kill the leadership, it signaled that the "Insurgency Squeeze" has reached the urban heart of Central Africa's primary military power.

• Wikipedia: 2025 N'Djamena attack

⚪ 9. The Mayuba "Allied Democratic Forces" Massacre (DRC)

Date: February 10, 2025 | Casualties: 70+ Abducted/Killed

Militants from the ADF (Allied Democratic Forces), an IS-affiliate, entered the village of Mayuba in the Lubero Territory, killing dozens and abducting over 70 Christian civilians.

• The Humanitarian Signal: This incident is part of the "ADF Surge," which has turned the eastern DRC into the most dangerous zone for religious minorities in Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Wikipedia: Allied Democratic Forces insurgency

⚫ 10. The Al-Funduq Highway Ambush (West Bank)

Date: January 6, 2025 | Casualties: 3 Dead, 8 Injured

Hamas’s Al-Qassam Brigades claimed responsibility for a mass shooting targeting a car and a bus on Highway 55.

• The Political Pivot: This attack, occurring early in 2025, served as the "Signal" that the Gaza conflict had fully metastasized into the West Bank, making any 2026 "Two-State" negotiations structurally impossible.

• Wikipedia: Al-Funduq shooting

The 2026 Strategic Conclusion: The "Conflict-Terror" Nexus

The definitive "Predictive History" line for 2026 is this: Terrorism is no longer a standalone threat; it is a feature of permanent conflict. With global violent fatalities rising 23% this year, the "Sovereign Squeeze" means that states can no longer separate "Military Defense" from "Counter-Terrorism." The trend for 2026 is the "Cyber-Kinetic Bridge"—where physical attacks are coordinated with digital economic sabotage.

Principal Intelligence & Strategic Sources

⭕ Institute for Economics & Peace: Global Terrorism Index 2025 Report

⭕ ReliefWeb: 2025 GTI – The Rise of Lone Wolf Terrorism in the West

⭕ IISS: The Armed Conflict Survey 2025 – Regional Flashpoints

⭕ Pool Reinsurance: December 2025 Monthly Terrorism Update

By late December 2025, the global "Security Squeeze" has shifted toward decentralized franchises and state-sponsored proxies. While legacy groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS remain the "Command Signal" for global jihadism, the 2025 de-proscription of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the UK and USA has created a new geopolitical precedent for "Rehabilitated Militancy." This report provides the necessary "Vibe Audit" for diplomats and researchers tracking the world's most dangerous non-state actors.

This list represents the "Kinetic Disruptors"—entities that have been cross-proscribed by the United Kingdom, United States, and Australia for their direct role in planning, facilitating, or executing acts of mass casualty and systemic destabilization.

1. The Islamic State (ISIS / Da'esh)

• Ideology: Radical Salafi-Jihadism aiming for a global "Caliphate."

• Goals: Destruction of Western "infidel" systems and the total implementation of an uncompromising Sharia-based administrative state.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The 2024 Crocus City Hall attack in Russia (145 deaths) and the persistent 2025 "Lone Actor" truck and blade attacks in New Orleans and Western Europe.

• Status: While geographically "squeezed" in Syria/Iraq, its digital recruitment and African franchises (ISWAP/IS-Mozambique) remain high-frequency threats.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State

2. Al-Qaeda (AQ)

• Ideology: Transnational Sunni Islamism focused on "Near" and "Far" enemies.

• Goals: Expulsion of Western influence from Muslim lands and the overthrow of "apostate" Middle Eastern regimes.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The foundational 9/11 attacks, the 2005 London bombings (7/7), and the 2015 Charlie Hebdo massacre.

• Status: Operates in 2026 as a decentralized "Board of Directors," providing strategic guidance to potent affiliates like Al-Shabaab and AQAP.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda

3. Hezbollah (Party of God)

• Ideology: Shia Islamist "Resistance" movement backed by Iran.

• Goals: Destruction of the State of Israel and the establishment of an Iranian-style theocracy in Lebanon.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The 1983 Beirut barracks bombing and the 2012 Burgas bus bombing. Throughout 2025, it has engaged in high-intensity kinetic exchanges with Israel.

• Status: Faces an "Internal Squeeze" in 2026 as the new Lebanese government, backed by the West, has officially announced plans for its total disarmament.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah

4. Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement)

• Ideology: Sunni-nationalist Islamist movement; a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

• Goals: Liberation of Palestine and the establishment of an Islamic state in its place.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The October 7, 2023 massacre (1,200 deaths), the largest single-day slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust.

• Status: Proscribed in its entirety by the UK, USA, and AUS. In late 2025, operative "Mohammed A." was arrested in London for plotting firearms attacks on European Jewish institutions.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas

5. Al-Shabaab (The Youth)

• Ideology: Somali-based Al-Qaeda affiliate; extreme Salafi-Jihadism.

• Goals: Overthrow of the Somali Federal Government and the enforcement of strict Sharia across the Horn of Africa.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The 2013 Westgate Mall siege and the 2017 Mogadishu truck bombing (587 deaths).

• Status: In 2026, it operates a "Shadow State" in rural Somalia, collecting more tax revenue than the official government and managing its own judicial system.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Shabaab_(militant_group)

6. Boko Haram / ISWAP

• Ideology: Opposes "Western" education and seeks to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria.

• Goals: Systematic erasure of secularism in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The 2014 Chibok schoolgirls kidnapping and the 2025 "Camp Holocaust" offensive that killed over 500 people.

• Status: A major regional threat in 2026, utilizing child shepherds as "Intelligence Signals" to track defense forces in Niger and Cameroon.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boko_Haram

7. Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT / Army of the Pure)

• Ideology: Pakistan-based Salafi-Jihadism targeting the Indian state.

• Goals: "Liberation" of Kashmir and the eventual destruction of the Indian democratic framework.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The 2008 Mumbai attacks (26/11) and the December 2025 Pahalgam attack that killed 25 tourists.

• Status: Continues to operate through proxies like "The Resistance Front" (TRF) to bypass international financial "Squeeze" signals from the FATF.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lashkar-e-Taiba

8. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)

• Ideology: Marxist-Leninist/Kurdish Nationalist.

• Goals: An independent Kurdish state within parts of Turkey, Iraq, and Syria.

• Audit of Major Attacks: Decades of guerilla warfare and the 2025 rocket attacks on Turkish-Iranian border infrastructure.

• Status: Significant development in May 2025, where its 12th Congress in Northern Iraq discussed dissolution following a call to lay down arms, though it remains proscribed in the West.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Workers%27_Party

9. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - Quds Force

• Ideology: Revolutionary Shia Khomeinism; Export of the Islamic Revolution.

• Goals: Regional hegemony for Iran through the "Axis of Resistance."

• Audit of Major Attacks: Direct and proxy involvement in the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing and the 2023-2025 Red Sea shipping attacks via the Houthis.

• Status: The IRGC remains the "Sovereign Spine" of Iranian power. While technically a state military branch, it is proscribed as a terror organization by the USA for its extraterritorial operations.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps

10. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

• Ideology: Radical Sunni Jihadism with strong operational ties to Shia Iran.

• Goals: Destruction of Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian Islamic state.

• Audit of Major Attacks: Countless suicide bombings in the 2000s and massive rocket salvos during the 2023-2025 Gaza conflicts.

• Status: Operates as a "Pure Kinetic" entity with no political or social wing, making it a high-priority target for Western intelligence "Audits."

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_Islamic_Jihad

The 2026 Strategic Conclusion: The "Deproscription" Signal

The most critical intel for 2026 is the HTS Precedent. Following the fall of the Assad regime in late 2024, the UK and USA removed Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham from their terror lists in 2025 to support the new Syrian government. This signals a shift in Western policy: Proscription is now a fluid diplomatic tool. Organizations that successfully pivot from "Terrorist Insurgency" to "State Institution" can find themselves delisted, provided they align with Western security signals against "Hardcore" entities like ISIS.

For the geopolitical researcher, the takeaway is clear: the threat is no longer just "Terror Groups," but the Hybridization of Militancy into the formal structures of the state.

Principal Intelligence & Government Sources

• House of Commons Library: Proscribed Terrorist Organisations (Dec 2025)
• U.S. Department of State: Foreign Terrorist Organizations List (Dec 2025 Update)
• DHS Homeland Threat Assessment 2025: Strategic Geopolitical Competition
• Pool Reinsurance: December 2025 Monthly Terrorism Update (UK)

On March 15, 2019, the world watched in horror as a 28-year-old Australian carried out a livestreamed massacre at two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. The attack resulted in 51 deaths and exposed a catastrophic failure in global security. For years, intelligence agencies had focused almost exclusively on religious extremism, leaving a massive blind spot for the rise of white supremacist terror.

From the digital "echo chambers" of the far-right to the systemic failures of the New Zealand security state, here is the complete investigative breakdown of the Christchurch tragedy.

1. The Strategy: A Terrorist for the "Digital Age"

The shooter, Brenton Tarrant, was not a traditional "lone wolf." He was a product of a global, online radicalization pipeline. He designed his attack to go viral, utilizing the power of the internet to amplify his message of hate.

• The Viral Manifesto: Minutes before the attack, he emailed a 74-page document titled "The Great Replacement" to over 30 recipients, including the Prime Minister’s office, to frame the global narrative.

• Livestreamed Atrocity: Using a helmet-mounted GoPro, he broadcast the massacre on Facebook Live. The footage was specifically edited to mimic "first-person shooter" video games to appeal to an online subculture of extremists.

• Global Radicalization: Funded by a $500,000 inheritance, he traveled to over a dozen countries—including Ukraine, Serbia, and Turkey—to connect with international white nationalist ideologies.

2. The Failure: The Royal Commission Findings

The 2020 Royal Commission of Inquiry provided a scathing look at why the shooter was never identified. It concluded that the security agencies were looking in the entirely wrong direction.

• The Concentration of Resources: New Zealand’s intelligence services (NZSIS) had an "inappropriate concentration of resources" on Islamic extremism, which blinded them to the growing domestic far-right threat.

• Missed Digital Signals: Although the shooter was active on boards like 4chan and 8chan and posted threatening comments on public Facebook pages, these were never flagged because agencies weren't monitoring those spaces.

• Firearms Loopholes: The shooter legally obtained a Category A firearms license and purchased high-powered rifles, which he then illegally modified with high-capacity magazines.

3. The Impact: A Global Reckoning

The tragedy forced a global shift in how governments view far-right extremism. It was no longer seen as a fringe movement but as a transnational, lethal threat.

• The Christchurch Call: Launched by former PM Jacinda Ardern, this international initiative pressured tech giants like Meta, Google, and X to reform their algorithms to stop the viral spread of terrorist and violent extremist content.

• The First-of-its-Kind Sentence: In August 2020, the killer was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole—the first time this sentence has ever been handed down in New Zealand's history.

📊 Investigative Data & Findings (2025 Update)

The Eternal Mark: Why We Must Remember

Christchurch remains a seminal case study in Intelligence Failure and Algorithm-Driven Radicalization. It serves as a reminder that when security agencies fixate on a single demographic, they leave the door open for monsters hiding in plain sight.

🔗 Reliable Investigative Resources:

1. Royal Commission of Inquiry: Full Report on the Christchurch Mosque Attacks

   https://christchurchattack.royalcommission.nz/the-report/

2. ABC Four Corners: Under the Radar - Investigative Documentary

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUVychuUnPk

3. The Christchurch Call: Official Website for the Global Initiative

   https://www.christchurchcall.com/

4. NZ History: Official Archive of the 51 Victims and National Response

   https://nzhistory.govt.nz/51-killed-mosque-shootings

5. Counter Extremism Project: Profile on Brenton Tarrant and Radicalization

   https://www.counterextremism.com/extremists/brenton-tarrant

As Bangladesh approaches its first general election of the post-Hasina era on February 12, 2026, the security landscape is characterized by high-intensity volatility. Geopolitical analysts and defense contractors operating in South Asia are monitoring a convergence of domestic insurgency, state-sponsored disruption from abroad, and the potential for a vacuum-driven rise in extremist militancy.

This report provides a strategic breakdown of the actors, motives, and kinetic threats currently facing the interim government's stability.

1. The Pro-Restoration Threat: Awami League Insurgency

The most immediate kinetic threat stems from the remnants of the deposed Awami League (AL) and its student wing, the Chhatra League. Operating both clandestinely within Bangladesh and from command centers in India, these groups are suspected of planning "strategic destabilization."

• The "Shadow Fleet" Strategy: Intelligence suggests that former AL cadres have organized "sleeper cells" tasked with targeting critical infrastructure—specifically the national power grid and rail networks—to induce public discontent ahead of the polls.

• The Cross-Border Factor: The presence of high-profile AL leaders in West Bengal and Tripura (India) has led to accusations of a "Government-in-Exile" facilitating the movement of small arms and funding across the porous 4,000km border.

• Cyber Warfare: Analysts have noted a 400% increase in bot-driven disinformation campaigns originating from foreign IPs, aimed at delegitimizing the Election Commission and inciting sectarian clashes.

2. Extremist Resurgence: IS-K and Neo-JMB

Geopolitical analysts are concerned that the current focus on political restructuring has created a security "blind spot" for transnational terror groups.

• ISIS-Khorasan (IS-K): There is credible intel regarding IS-K attempting to recruit disenfranchised youth by framing the interim government as a "Western puppet." Their targets typically include religious minorities and secular political gatherings to provoke civil unrest.

• Neo-JMB: The local affiliate of the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh is reportedly attempting a comeback. Tactical data suggests they may shift from suicide bombings to "lone-wolf" IED attacks in high-density areas of Dhaka and Chattogram.

3. Geopolitical Interests and State Actors

Bangladesh's strategic position in the Bay of Bengal makes it a theater for regional power plays, with various nations holding significant "security stakes" in the election outcome.

4. Tactical Warnings for 2026

Defense and intelligence observers should prioritize the following indicators of escalating violence:

1. Weaponization of Protests: Political rallies are expected to be infiltrated by "agent provocateurs" using Molotov cocktails and artisanal explosives to trigger heavy-handed police responses.

2. Targeted Assassinations: Intel reports suggest a list of "high-value targets," including interim advisers and student leaders, designed to decapitate the current leadership structure.

3. Border Tensions: A "false flag" border incident could be used as a pretext for regional intervention or to justify a declaration of emergency, delaying the February elections.

5. Summary for Human Rights Defenders and Analysts

The impunity once enjoyed by the previous regime's security forces has left a fragile security apparatus. Human rights organizations warn that "counter-terrorism" efforts in the lead-up to February must not be used as a blanket excuse for extrajudicial actions, which would only serve to further radicalize the population.

The success of the 2026 elections depends entirely on the interim government's ability to dismantle the cross-border funding conduits and secure the maritime borders from illegal arms shipments.

Should the international community consider deploying a specialized UN peacekeeping observation force to mitigate the risk of state-sponsored electoral violence?

🔗 Geopolitical Sources & Defense Briefings:

1. Jane's: South Asia Security Sentinel - Bangladesh Election Risk Assessment 2026

2. Crisis Group: Red Alert - Navigating Bangladesh’s Political Transition

3. Institute for the Study of War (ISW): Tracking Extremist Mobilization in the Bay of Bengal

4. Bangladesh Ministry of Home Affairs: National Security Threat Assessment (Interim Brief)

5. Nikkei Asia: How the India-Bangladesh Standoff Shapes Regional Stability

The diplomatic landscape of South Asia is currently experiencing a seismic shift. In Bangladesh, a youth-led revolution has transformed from a domestic uprising into a tense international standoff with India. Simultaneously, thousands of miles away, the Canadian government has leveled unprecedented charges against Indian state actors.

Part 1: The Bangladesh Tinderbox (December 2025)

The fall of the Awami League government in August 2024 has left a vacuum filled by deep-seated resentment toward India. For the protesting students of Dhaka, India is not just a neighbor, but an active participant in the suppression of their democracy.

The Extradition Crisis: Sheikh Hasina

Following her conviction in absentia for crimes against humanity, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina remains in India. This has become the primary flashpoint for the "July Oikya" (July Unity) movement.

• The Ultimatum: Protesters have demanded Hasina’s extradition by December 25, 2025, threatening to storm diplomatic missions if the deadline is not met.

• Incendiary Rhetoric: Dhaka has formally protested against Hasina allegedly using Indian soil to release audio clips inciting her supporters to "terrorist acts" to disrupt the upcoming February 12, 2026, elections.

The Martyrdom of Sharif Osman Hadi

The death of youth leader Sharif Osman Hadi in December 2025 has become the George Floyd moment for the Bangladeshi "Gen Z."

• The Allegation: Protesters and the interim government claim the assailants who shot Hadi were Awami League fugitives protected by Indian intelligence. 

• The Escape: There are widespread accusations that Indian agencies facilitated the escape of the primary suspect, Faisal Karim Masud, across the border to evade justice.

Part 2: The Canadian Connection—Transnational Repression

While Bangladesh accuses India of harboring political fugitives, Canada has accused India of the opposite: using criminal proxies to eliminate political dissidents on foreign soil.

The "Bishnoi Gang" Allegations

In a series of explosive reports throughout late 2024 and 2025, the RCMP (Royal Canadian Mounted Police) and federal officials have linked Indian government agents to the Lawrence Bishnoi organized crime network.

• The Mechanism: Intelligence gathered by Indian diplomats on Sikh activists (specifically those supporting the Khalistan movement) was allegedly passed to the Bishnoi gang to carry out extortions and assassinations.

• The Victims: This network has been tied to the 2023 murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar and more recent violent incidents in Brampton and Mississauga in mid-2025.

• The Order: Canadian officials have publicly named senior Indian cabinet members as being aware of, or directing, these operations—a claim India dismisses as "absurd and motivated."

Part 3: The Unifying Theme—Intelligence as a Political Tool

Whether in Dhaka or Ottawa, the accusations share a common DNA: the alleged use of intelligence apparatuses to influence internal political outcomes.

The Diplomatic Fallout

The consequences of these investigations are already visible:

1. Visa Suspensions: India has indefinitely suspended visa services in several Bangladeshi cities due to security threats.

2. Expulsions: Canada and India have engaged in "tit-for-tat" expulsions of high-ranking diplomats, reducing missions to a skeletal staff.

3. Global Trust Deficit: For the first time, India’s reputation as a "responsible democratic power" is being questioned by its closest Western allies (the Five Eyes) and its most vital neighbors.

As we head into the 2026 Bangladesh elections, can the region stabilize if the "Hasina Factor" remains unresolved?

🔗 Investigative Sources & Official Documents:

▪️ Al Jazeera: Protests Escalate in Bangladesh After Death of Hadi

▪️ The Pointer: Sikhs Targeted by Indian-Backed Criminal Groups in Canada

▪️ UK Parliament: The Fall of the Hasina Government and Recent Developments

▪️ UN News: Bangladesh Protests Probe Reveals Systematic Repression

▪️ The Hindu: Why the Death of Sharif Osman Hadi Has Triggered a Crisis

In the intelligence communities of London, Washington, and Berlin, a disturbing realization has taken hold. While the world spent two decades focused on the threat of Salafi-jihadist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS, a new form of militancy has emerged from within Western borders.

Experts are now warning of a "Great Convergence"—a phenomenon where far-right extremist groups are adopting the exact same recruitment, radicalization, and operational tactics used by ISIS. This isn't just about politics; it is the rise of a decentralized, digitally-native insurgency that mirrors the very terror it claims to oppose.

1. The Ideological Intersection: Accelerationism

At the heart of modern far-right extremism lies a philosophy known as Accelerationism. Much like the "End Times" theology of ISIS, Accelerationists believe that modern Western society is irredeemable and must be violently collapsed to make way for a new order.

• ISIS Goal: To provoke a "clash of civilizations" to usher in a global Caliphate.

• Far-Right Goal: To provoke a "race war" to usher in an ethno-state.

Both groups view the current "system" (the state, the media, and international institutions) as an enemy that must be destroyed through acts of spectacular violence that force civilians to pick a side.

2. The "Saints" vs. "Martyrs": The Cult of the Individual

One of the most chilling similarities is the move toward leaderless resistance.

ISIS mastered the "remote-controlled" attack—inspiring individuals online to act in their own towns without ever visiting a training camp. Far-right networks on platforms like Telegram and 4chan have replicated this model perfectly.

The Gamification of Violence

Far-right extremists have created a "pantheon of saints"—individuals like the Christchurch or El Paso shooters—who are venerated in the same way ISIS venerates its suicide bombers.

• The Manifesto as Scripture: Digital manifestos serve as "how-to" guides for future attackers, often including specific instructions on weapons, targets, and live-streaming tactics.

• Scoreboards: Online forums track the "kill counts" of attackers, turning mass violence into a competitive digital game.

3. Tactical Mimicry: From "Dabiq" to "The Base"

The organizational structure of groups like The Base or Atomwaffen Division (and its various rebrands) is a direct carbon copy of Al-Qaeda's cell-based structure.

4. The Globalized Network: A Transnational Threat

For years, the far-right was seen as a localized "domestic" issue. However, intelligence reports from the Soufan Center and Europol confirm that these groups are now deeply transnational.

• Foreign Fighters: Just as Europeans traveled to Syria to join ISIS, some far-right extremists have traveled to conflict zones in Eastern Europe to gain combat experience.

• Digital Safe Havens: A "White Power" activist in Australia can now collaborate in real-time with a neo-Nazi in Sweden to coordinate a propaganda drop or a cyber-attack.

5. Why the State is Struggling to Respond

Western law enforcement faces a unique "mirror image" problem. Because these extremists often come from the same cultural and ethnic background as the majority population, they are harder to profile and track than foreign-born threats.

1. Freedom of Speech vs. Incitement: Many of these groups operate in a legal "gray zone," using coded language and memes to incite violence without triggering automated moderation.

2. Institutional Infiltration: There are growing concerns regarding the radicalization of individuals within the military and police forces—a tactic known as "entryism" designed to gain access to weapons and training.

The Final Verdict: Two Sides of the Same Coin

The threat of the 2020s is not defined by one specific religion or race, but by the globalization of extremism. Whether the motivation is a distorted version of faith or a distorted version of heritage, the result is the same: the dehumanization of the "other" and the glorification of mass death.

To defeat this "White Jihad," the West must treat far-right terror with the same systemic urgency, international cooperation, and intelligence-gathering rigor it once applied to the groups it fought in the Middle East.

Do you believe that social media companies should be legally held responsible for "gamified" terror content on their platforms?

🔗 Sources & Investigative Reports:

▪️ The Soufan Center: The Transnational Design of Far-Right White Supremacy

▪️ Europol: TE-SAT - European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2025

▪️ Journal of Strategic Security: Accelerationism and the Cult of the Individual

▪️ ADL: The Global Impact of Accelerationist Ideology

▪️ Global Network on Extremism & Technology (GNET): Tactical Mimicry Between ISIS and the Far-Right