Yaqeen Blog

By late December 2025, the global "Security Squeeze" has shifted toward decentralized franchises and state-sponsored proxies. While legacy groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS remain the "Command Signal" for global jihadism, the 2025 de-proscription of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the UK and USA has created a new geopolitical precedent for "Rehabilitated Militancy." This report provides the necessary "Vibe Audit" for diplomats and researchers tracking the world's most dangerous non-state actors.

This list represents the "Kinetic Disruptors"—entities that have been cross-proscribed by the United Kingdom, United States, and Australia for their direct role in planning, facilitating, or executing acts of mass casualty and systemic destabilization.

1. The Islamic State (ISIS / Da'esh)

• Ideology: Radical Salafi-Jihadism aiming for a global "Caliphate."

• Goals: Destruction of Western "infidel" systems and the total implementation of an uncompromising Sharia-based administrative state.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The 2024 Crocus City Hall attack in Russia (145 deaths) and the persistent 2025 "Lone Actor" truck and blade attacks in New Orleans and Western Europe.

• Status: While geographically "squeezed" in Syria/Iraq, its digital recruitment and African franchises (ISWAP/IS-Mozambique) remain high-frequency threats.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State

2. Al-Qaeda (AQ)

• Ideology: Transnational Sunni Islamism focused on "Near" and "Far" enemies.

• Goals: Expulsion of Western influence from Muslim lands and the overthrow of "apostate" Middle Eastern regimes.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The foundational 9/11 attacks, the 2005 London bombings (7/7), and the 2015 Charlie Hebdo massacre.

• Status: Operates in 2026 as a decentralized "Board of Directors," providing strategic guidance to potent affiliates like Al-Shabaab and AQAP.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda

3. Hezbollah (Party of God)

• Ideology: Shia Islamist "Resistance" movement backed by Iran.

• Goals: Destruction of the State of Israel and the establishment of an Iranian-style theocracy in Lebanon.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The 1983 Beirut barracks bombing and the 2012 Burgas bus bombing. Throughout 2025, it has engaged in high-intensity kinetic exchanges with Israel.

• Status: Faces an "Internal Squeeze" in 2026 as the new Lebanese government, backed by the West, has officially announced plans for its total disarmament.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah

4. Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement)

• Ideology: Sunni-nationalist Islamist movement; a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

• Goals: Liberation of Palestine and the establishment of an Islamic state in its place.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The October 7, 2023 massacre (1,200 deaths), the largest single-day slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust.

• Status: Proscribed in its entirety by the UK, USA, and AUS. In late 2025, operative "Mohammed A." was arrested in London for plotting firearms attacks on European Jewish institutions.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas

5. Al-Shabaab (The Youth)

• Ideology: Somali-based Al-Qaeda affiliate; extreme Salafi-Jihadism.

• Goals: Overthrow of the Somali Federal Government and the enforcement of strict Sharia across the Horn of Africa.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The 2013 Westgate Mall siege and the 2017 Mogadishu truck bombing (587 deaths).

• Status: In 2026, it operates a "Shadow State" in rural Somalia, collecting more tax revenue than the official government and managing its own judicial system.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Shabaab_(militant_group)

6. Boko Haram / ISWAP

• Ideology: Opposes "Western" education and seeks to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria.

• Goals: Systematic erasure of secularism in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The 2014 Chibok schoolgirls kidnapping and the 2025 "Camp Holocaust" offensive that killed over 500 people.

• Status: A major regional threat in 2026, utilizing child shepherds as "Intelligence Signals" to track defense forces in Niger and Cameroon.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boko_Haram

7. Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT / Army of the Pure)

• Ideology: Pakistan-based Salafi-Jihadism targeting the Indian state.

• Goals: "Liberation" of Kashmir and the eventual destruction of the Indian democratic framework.

• Audit of Major Attacks: The 2008 Mumbai attacks (26/11) and the December 2025 Pahalgam attack that killed 25 tourists.

• Status: Continues to operate through proxies like "The Resistance Front" (TRF) to bypass international financial "Squeeze" signals from the FATF.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lashkar-e-Taiba

8. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)

• Ideology: Marxist-Leninist/Kurdish Nationalist.

• Goals: An independent Kurdish state within parts of Turkey, Iraq, and Syria.

• Audit of Major Attacks: Decades of guerilla warfare and the 2025 rocket attacks on Turkish-Iranian border infrastructure.

• Status: Significant development in May 2025, where its 12th Congress in Northern Iraq discussed dissolution following a call to lay down arms, though it remains proscribed in the West.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Workers%27_Party

9. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - Quds Force

• Ideology: Revolutionary Shia Khomeinism; Export of the Islamic Revolution.

• Goals: Regional hegemony for Iran through the "Axis of Resistance."

• Audit of Major Attacks: Direct and proxy involvement in the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing and the 2023-2025 Red Sea shipping attacks via the Houthis.

• Status: The IRGC remains the "Sovereign Spine" of Iranian power. While technically a state military branch, it is proscribed as a terror organization by the USA for its extraterritorial operations.

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps

10. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

• Ideology: Radical Sunni Jihadism with strong operational ties to Shia Iran.

• Goals: Destruction of Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian Islamic state.

• Audit of Major Attacks: Countless suicide bombings in the 2000s and massive rocket salvos during the 2023-2025 Gaza conflicts.

• Status: Operates as a "Pure Kinetic" entity with no political or social wing, making it a high-priority target for Western intelligence "Audits."

• Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_Islamic_Jihad

The 2026 Strategic Conclusion: The "Deproscription" Signal

The most critical intel for 2026 is the HTS Precedent. Following the fall of the Assad regime in late 2024, the UK and USA removed Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham from their terror lists in 2025 to support the new Syrian government. This signals a shift in Western policy: Proscription is now a fluid diplomatic tool. Organizations that successfully pivot from "Terrorist Insurgency" to "State Institution" can find themselves delisted, provided they align with Western security signals against "Hardcore" entities like ISIS.

For the geopolitical researcher, the takeaway is clear: the threat is no longer just "Terror Groups," but the Hybridization of Militancy into the formal structures of the state.

Principal Intelligence & Government Sources

• House of Commons Library: Proscribed Terrorist Organisations (Dec 2025)
• U.S. Department of State: Foreign Terrorist Organizations List (Dec 2025 Update)
• DHS Homeland Threat Assessment 2025: Strategic Geopolitical Competition
• Pool Reinsurance: December 2025 Monthly Terrorism Update (UK)

This investigative report provides a concise history of the Islamic State (ISIS), tracing its evolution from a regional insurgency to a global phenomenon, while examining the complex geopolitical web of its alleged funding and logistical support.

The Origins of the Islamic State: A Decade of Deconstruction

In the early 2010s, a void in the heart of the Middle East allowed for the rise of a group that would redefine modern warfare and global security. While often viewed as a sudden explosion, the Islamic State (ISIS) was the result of a decade-long evolution, fueled by regional instability, shifting alliances, and a sophisticated command structure.

1. The Historical Evolution: From AQI to the Caliphate

The roots of ISIS are found in Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, founded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 1999. Following the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, the group became Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).

After Zarqawi’s death in 2006, the group rebranded as the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). It was only after the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 that the group expanded into Syria, eventually declaring itself the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/ISIS) and announcing a global "Caliphate" in June 2014 under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

• Verified Resource: Timeline: the Rise, Spread, and Fall of the Islamic State - Wilson Center

2. Alleged Funding and National Involvement

The financing of ISIS is a subject of intense geopolitical debate. Unlike traditional groups, ISIS became "self-funded" at its peak through:

• Oil Smuggling: Controlling refineries in Eastern Syria.

• Extortion and Taxation: Systematic looting of banks (notably in Mosul) and taxing populations.

• Antiquities Trafficking: Selling looted artifacts on the black market.

Allegations of State Involvement:

Various intelligence reports and geopolitical analysts have alleged "blind-eye" support or indirect funding from regional actors during the early stages of the Syrian conflict to counter Iranian influence. While most nations officially deny direct support, a 2014 report by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) detailed how private donors in the Gulf region bypassed international banking systems to funnel money to militant groups in Syria.

• Verified Resource: Financing of the Terrorist Organisation ISIL - FATF Report

3. Manpower and Global Operation

At its height (2014-2016), ISIS controlled an area the size of Great Britain.

• Personnel: Estimates from the CIA and IHS Jane’s placed their core fighting force between 30,000 to 100,000 fighters, including an estimated 40,000 foreign fighters from over 120 countries.

• Current Operations: Despite losing its physical territory in 2019, ISIS operates via "provinces" (Wilayats). The most active currently is ISIS-K (Khorasan) in Afghanistan and parts of Central Asia, and ISWAP (West Africa) in the Lake Chad basin.

• Verified Resource: ISIS Foreign Fighters Data - United Nations

4. Arsenal: The Weapons of the Insurgency

The ISIS arsenal was a patchwork of looted modern weaponry and improvised technology:

• Looted Stockpiles: After the fall of Mosul, ISIS captured thousands of US-made M1114 Humvees, M1A1 Abrams tanks, and Soviet-era hardware from the Syrian and Iraqi armies.

• Small Arms: A study by Conflict Armament Research (CAR) tracked thousands of weapons back to manufacturers in over 25 countries, primarily sourced from diverted shipments intended for "moderate" rebels.

• IED Innovation: ISIS became world leaders in the industrial-scale manufacture of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and weaponized commercial drones.

• Verified Resource: Weapons of the Islamic State - Conflict Armament Research

Data Summary: ISIS at a Glance

The Geopolitical Conclusion

The rise of ISIS was not an isolated event but a consequence of regional power vacuums and the "Rewired Globe" of 21st-century warfare. While the "Caliphate" has fallen, the ideology and its decentralized "provinces" remain a primary concern for international security in 2026.

For the connected generation at gwire.news, understanding these origins is vital to navigating the complexities of modern geopolitics.