Yaqeen Blog

The diplomatic landscape of South Asia is currently experiencing a seismic shift. In Bangladesh, a youth-led revolution has transformed from a domestic uprising into a tense international standoff with India. Simultaneously, thousands of miles away, the Canadian government has leveled unprecedented charges against Indian state actors.

Part 1: The Bangladesh Tinderbox (December 2025)

The fall of the Awami League government in August 2024 has left a vacuum filled by deep-seated resentment toward India. For the protesting students of Dhaka, India is not just a neighbor, but an active participant in the suppression of their democracy.

The Extradition Crisis: Sheikh Hasina

Following her conviction in absentia for crimes against humanity, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina remains in India. This has become the primary flashpoint for the "July Oikya" (July Unity) movement.

• The Ultimatum: Protesters have demanded Hasina’s extradition by December 25, 2025, threatening to storm diplomatic missions if the deadline is not met.

• Incendiary Rhetoric: Dhaka has formally protested against Hasina allegedly using Indian soil to release audio clips inciting her supporters to "terrorist acts" to disrupt the upcoming February 12, 2026, elections.

The Martyrdom of Sharif Osman Hadi

The death of youth leader Sharif Osman Hadi in December 2025 has become the George Floyd moment for the Bangladeshi "Gen Z."

• The Allegation: Protesters and the interim government claim the assailants who shot Hadi were Awami League fugitives protected by Indian intelligence. 

• The Escape: There are widespread accusations that Indian agencies facilitated the escape of the primary suspect, Faisal Karim Masud, across the border to evade justice.

Part 2: The Canadian Connection—Transnational Repression

While Bangladesh accuses India of harboring political fugitives, Canada has accused India of the opposite: using criminal proxies to eliminate political dissidents on foreign soil.

The "Bishnoi Gang" Allegations

In a series of explosive reports throughout late 2024 and 2025, the RCMP (Royal Canadian Mounted Police) and federal officials have linked Indian government agents to the Lawrence Bishnoi organized crime network.

• The Mechanism: Intelligence gathered by Indian diplomats on Sikh activists (specifically those supporting the Khalistan movement) was allegedly passed to the Bishnoi gang to carry out extortions and assassinations.

• The Victims: This network has been tied to the 2023 murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar and more recent violent incidents in Brampton and Mississauga in mid-2025.

• The Order: Canadian officials have publicly named senior Indian cabinet members as being aware of, or directing, these operations—a claim India dismisses as "absurd and motivated."

Part 3: The Unifying Theme—Intelligence as a Political Tool

Whether in Dhaka or Ottawa, the accusations share a common DNA: the alleged use of intelligence apparatuses to influence internal political outcomes.

The Diplomatic Fallout

The consequences of these investigations are already visible:

1. Visa Suspensions: India has indefinitely suspended visa services in several Bangladeshi cities due to security threats.

2. Expulsions: Canada and India have engaged in "tit-for-tat" expulsions of high-ranking diplomats, reducing missions to a skeletal staff.

3. Global Trust Deficit: For the first time, India’s reputation as a "responsible democratic power" is being questioned by its closest Western allies (the Five Eyes) and its most vital neighbors.

As we head into the 2026 Bangladesh elections, can the region stabilize if the "Hasina Factor" remains unresolved?

🔗 Investigative Sources & Official Documents:

▪️ Al Jazeera: Protests Escalate in Bangladesh After Death of Hadi

▪️ The Pointer: Sikhs Targeted by Indian-Backed Criminal Groups in Canada

▪️ UK Parliament: The Fall of the Hasina Government and Recent Developments

▪️ UN News: Bangladesh Protests Probe Reveals Systematic Repression

▪️ The Hindu: Why the Death of Sharif Osman Hadi Has Triggered a Crisis