Yaqeen Blog

According to the structural logic and game-theory models analyzed by Professor Jiang, Venezuela represents the final boundary of the "Shock and Awe" doctrine.

⭕ 1. The Myth of the "Fast Collapse"

The United States military doctrine is built on speed—destroying command centers and forcing a rapid surrender. Professor Jiang argues this model fails in Venezuela due to Regime Cohesion.

• The Intelligence Signal: Unlike Iraq or Libya, where the military was a separate elite, the Venezuelan military is the Sovereign Backbone of the state. They do not just "serve" the government; they are the government, holding keys to the economy and logistics.

• The Squeeze: An attack on the president is viewed as an existential threat to the entire officer class. Consequently, the "defection signal" that Washington waits for never materializes at scale.

⭕ 2. American Superiority vs. Political Victory

Professor Jiang distinguishes between "Kinetic Dominance" (the ability to bomb) and "Political Control" (the ability to govern).

• The Imperial Limit: The U.S. can achieve air supremacy in hours, but Venezuela’s geography—rugged, densely forested, and urbanized—negates the effectiveness of high-tech sensors.

• The "Vietnam Frequency": In a protracted conflict, U.S. military assets become "Hostages to Terrain." They can hold the capital, but they cannot secure the thousands of miles of "Strategic Depth" where local militias operate.

⭕ 3. The Sanctions Loophole (Managed Escalation)

Washington uses sanctions as a "Financial Squeeze" to trigger a popular uprising. However, Professor Jiang applies game theory to show why this backfires.

• The Outcome: Rather than toppling the regime, sanctions force the government to pivot toward External Alliances (Russia, China, and Iran).

• The Proxy Signal: Venezuela becomes a "Fixed Asset" for America's rivals. Moscow provides security, Beijing provides infrastructure, and Tehran provides fuel-logic. The conflict is no longer local; it is a global stalemate where the U.S. has no leverage to force a "Win."

⭕ 4. What Trump "Really Wants" (The Controlled Conflict Tool)

If victory is impossible, why does the U.S. continue the pressure? Professor Jiang posits that for a leader like Donald Trump, Venezuela is not a "war to be won," but a "Negotiation Asset."

• The Transactional Audit: Trump uses Venezuela as a pressure point to extract concessions from other actors—such as forcing China to negotiate on trade or pushing for regional energy dominance.

• Controlled Implosion: The goal is not "Regime Change," which would require a costly occupation, but "Managed Chaos." By keeping Venezuela in a state of "Controlled Squeeze," the U.S. prevents it from becoming a stable regional leader while avoiding the "Vietnam Trap."

The 2026 Strategic Conclusion: The Stalemate Sovereign

The "Predictive History" line is this: There is no decisive end. The Venezuela conflict is not moving toward a "Mission Accomplished" banner; it is moving toward a permanent Geopolitical Frontier. For the geopolitical analyst, the takeaway is imperial discipline. The U.S. avoids a full-scale invasion because its "Game Theory" indicates the cost of occupation outweighs the value of the oil. In 2026, Venezuela remains a "Black Hole" for American foreign policy—a place where military might meets its structural limit.

Principal Intelligence & Strategic Sources

⭕ Predictive History: Why the U.S. Cannot Win in Venezuela (Prof. Jiang Xueqin)

⭕ Cyrus Janssen: The Professor Who Saw It Coming – Jiang Xueqin Audit

⭕ Newsweek: The Historian Predicting the Limits of American Empire

⭕ Glenn Diesen: Jiang Xueqin on the Civilizational Collapse and Geostrategy