Yaqeen Blog

As of late December 2025, tensions between Washington and Caracas have reached a critical inflection point. Following months of "Operation Southern Spear"—a surge of U.S. naval assets to the Caribbean that has already seen 28 maritime strikes and over 100 casualties—the rhetoric from the White House has shifted. President Trump recently signaled that land-based strikes are "going to start," and for the first time, ground operations are being publicly discussed as a means to dismantle the "Cartel of the Suns" (now designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization).

However, a ground invasion of Venezuela would not be a "Panama 1989" scenario. Analysts, including Andrew Chang and experts from CSIS and the Robert Lansing Institute, warn of a "South American quagmire."

1. The Geographical Fortress: Terrain as a Deterrent

Venezuela’s geography is a natural barrier against conventional ground forces. Unlike the flat deserts of the Middle East, Venezuela presents a lethal mix of urban density and impenetrable wilderness.

• The Andean Barrier & Amazonian Rainforest: Massive swaths of the country are covered in dense jungle and rugged mountain ranges. U.S. armor and heavy logistics would be confined to predictable road networks, making them prime targets for ambushes.

• The Urban Jungle of Caracas: The capital is a sprawling valley surrounded by slums (barrios) built into steep hillsides. Standard military doctrine suggests a 10-to-1 troop ratio is needed for successful urban combat in such environments. Controlling Caracas alone could require more troops than are currently deployed in the entire Southern Command (SOUTHCOM).

• Logistical Overstretch: While the U.S. has bases in Puerto Rico and Guantanamo Bay, it lacks a friendly border neighbor willing to host an invasion force. Brazil and Colombia have expressed deep reservations, meaning any invasion would likely be a high-risk amphibious and airborne operation.

2. The Asymmetric Shield: "The War of All the People"

The Venezuelan military (FANB) knows it cannot win a conventional battle. Consequently, Caracas has shifted its entire defense strategy toward Asymmetric Warfare.

• Bolivarian Militia: Maduro has claimed to mobilize over 4 million members of the Bolivarian Militia. While their conventional effectiveness is low, they are trained for localized guerrilla resistance, sabotage, and urban "anarchization."

• The "Colectivos": These are pro-regime armed groups embedded in civilian neighborhoods. Their deep local knowledge and lack of uniforms make them an invisible, lethal threat to occupying forces.

• External Support: Under a new 10-year Strategic Partnership Treaty signed in late 2025, Russia and Iran are reportedly providing "non-lethal" technical support, including advanced electronic warfare and anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities that could disrupt U.S. drones and communications.

3. Political and Diplomatic Fallback: Regional Isolation

For diplomats and political analysts, the "day after" is the greatest concern. A ground invasion would likely dismantle the current U.S. standing in the Western Hemisphere.

🔗 Key Intel & Live Sources

CBC News: Why a U.S. ground invasion of Venezuela would be a disaster | Andrew Chang

CSIS Analysis: Trump's Caribbean Campaign: Data Behind Operation Southern Spear

Modern Diplomacy: A Gathering Storm: The Escalating U.S.-Venezuela Military Confrontation

Washington Post: Trump faces narrowing options as boat strikes kill over 100

The Guardian: Gunboat Diplomacy: Repeating the Mistakes of the Past

The Analyst's Verdict

A ground invasion of Venezuela would likely succeed in toppling the Maduro government in the short term, but it would almost certainly lead to a prolonged insurgency and a regional humanitarian crisis. The logistical requirements alone—estimated by CSIS as being "off by a factor of 5 to 20"—suggest that current deployments are designed for coercion and targeted strikes, rather than the "boots on the ground" invasion the rhetoric implies.

On December 19, 2025, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) enacted a significant escalation in its pressure campaign against the Venezuelan government. By sanctioning seven immediate family members and close associates of the Maduro-Flores network, the Trump administration has signaled a definitive shift away from diplomatic engagement toward a policy of total financial and maritime isolation. For geopolitical analysts, defense experts, and human rights defenders, these actions represent a formal classification of the Venezuelan state as a "narco-terrorist" entity, with profound implications for regional stability in early 2026.

1. The Real Reasons Behind the Allegations

While the public rhetoric from the Treasury focuses on "flooding the U.S. with drugs," strategic intelligence suggests three deeper motivations for this December 2025 escalation:

• The Failed "Barbados Agreement": Washington has officially abandoned the policy of sanctions relief in exchange for democratic concessions. Re-sanctioning Malpica Flores (previously removed in 2022) signals that the U.S. no longer believes Maduro will allow a peaceful transition of power. 

• The Oil-Narco Nexus: The Treasury is targeting individuals like Ramon Carretero Napolitano, a Panamanian businessman accused of using "shadow fleets" to move Venezuelan oil.⁴ The U.S. alleges that the proceeds from these deceptive shipments are laundered to fund the Cartel of the Suns.  

• Military Escalation: These sanctions coincide with a major U.S. naval buildup in the Caribbean, including strikes on suspected drug vessels that have killed over 80 people since September.⁵ Labeling the regime as "narco-terrorists" establishes a legal framework for a potential total naval blockade. 

2. Does Venezuela Really Have Drug Cartels?

The short answer is yes, but they do not look like the traditional cartels of Mexico. In Venezuela, the "cartel" is embedded within the state's military and intelligence wings.

The Cartel of the Suns (Cartel de los Soles)

This is not a single hierarchical organization but a loose network of cells within the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB).

• Origin of the Name: It refers to the "sun" emblems worn on the uniforms of Venezuelan generals.

• Function: Unlike traditional cartels that fight the state, the Cartel of the Suns is the state. It provides the "permissive environment" that allows groups like the ELN and FARC dissidents to move hundreds of metric tons of cocaine from Colombia through Venezuelan ports and clandestine airstrips.

3. Is Maduro Directly Involved?

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) maintains a $25 million reward for Maduro’s arrest, alleging he is the ultimate "leader" of this narco-terrorism conspiracy.

• The Indictment: Maduro is accused of using the Venezuelan military to provide "security" and heavy weaponry for drug traffickers in exchange for personal wealth and regime stability.

• The "Flores" Connection: The involvement of his wife’s family—the "Narco Nephews"—is often cited as the smoking gun.⁹ Their 2016 conviction for attempting to ship 800kg of cocaine via the presidential hangar directly linked the First Family to the logistics of the trade.

• The Counter-Argument: Maduro claims these allegations are an "imperialist invention" designed to justify a military coup to seize Venezuela’s oil reserves—the largest in the world. He argues that the real drug problem lies in Colombian production and American consumption.

4. Intel Data: Security Metrics (Dec 2025)

5. Summary for Journalists and Activists

The December 19 sanctions are a "final warning." By targeting the entire familial network, the U.S. is attempting to freeze the liquid assets Maduro uses to buy the loyalty of his generals. For human rights defenders, the concern is that as the "narco-state" is backed into a corner, its reliance on criminal groups like the Tren de Aragua to maintain domestic control will lead to a spike in extrajudicial violence and repression.

Does the U.S. "Foreign Terrorist Organization" (FTO) designation of the Cartel of the Suns make a full military intervention in Venezuela more likely in early 2026?

🔗 Deep-Dive Sources & Research:

1. U.S. Treasury: Treasury Targets Family Members and Associates of Maduro Regime (Dec 19, 2025)

2. U.S. State Department: Narcotics Rewards Program - Nicolás Maduro Moros

3. InSight Crime: The Cartel of the Suns - Deep Dive into Venezuela's Military Traffickers

4. Journal of Democracy: How Venezuela Became a Gangster State (Sept 2025)

5. Reuters: U.S. Sanctions Maduro Relatives as War Fears Build in Caribbean

The diplomatic and economic fissure between the United States and Venezuela represents one of the most significant geopolitical tensions in the modern era. While often framed as a clash of ideologies, the conflict is fundamentally rooted in the strategic control of the world’s largest proven oil reserves and a shifting regional order that has redefined Western Hemisphere relations for a new generation.

Historical Foundation: From Strategic Ally to Ideological Adversary

For much of the 20th century, Venezuela was the crown jewel of American energy security. Following the 1922 Maracaibo oil strike, U.S. giants such as ExxonMobil and Chevron built the foundation of the Venezuelan oil industry, making the nation the primary supplier to the U.S. Gulf Coast. This symbiotic relationship began to erode in 1999 with the rise of Hugo Chávez. His "Bolivarian Revolution" sought to break "Yankee imperialism" by nationalizing assets and diverting oil wealth toward socialist social programs. This created a generational divide: while older diplomats remember a period of mutual prosperity, younger leaders in Caracas view the U.S. as a predatory hegemon, and Washington sees Venezuela as a destabilizing force.

The Orinoco Factor: Energy Security vs. Global Sanctions

Venezuela’s leverage lies in the Orinoco Belt, which holds an estimated 303 billion barrels of crude—surpassing Saudi Arabia. However, this is "heavy sour" crude, which requires the specialized high-complexity refineries found in the United States.

• Economic Warfare: Since 2017, Washington has utilized sectoral sanctions against the state oil company PDVSA to choke the regime's revenue. By 2025, these measures escalated into maritime interdictions and the seizure of tankers, which the Maduro administration has labeled "international piracy."

• Global Realignment: To bypass the U.S. financial system, Caracas has forged deep strategic alliances with Russia, China, and Iran. This "Axis of Evasion" provides Venezuela with a lifeline of diluents and technical expertise, turning a bilateral dispute into a multifaceted Cold War theater.

• The Humanitarian Toll: The collapse of the oil-dependent economy has triggered one of the largest migration crises in history, with millions of Venezuelans fleeing hyperinflation. This has turned a regional energy issue into a domestic political firestorm in the U.S. regarding border security and immigration.

The 2025 Escalation: A New Phase of Brinkmanship

As of late 2025, the conflict has entered a heightened military phase. The deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford Strike Group to the Caribbean and recent U.S. airstrikes against suspected narco-trafficking vessels linked to the regime mark a departure from purely economic pressure. Washington’s current strategy—"triggering change through maximum pressure"—aims to force a military fracture within Caracas, while Maduro utilizes nationalist rhetoric to solidify his "warrior" base against external threats.

Business Outlook: Volatility and the Energy Transition

For the global business reader, the "Venezuela Risk" remains a primary driver of Brent crude volatility. While a regime shift could theoretically return 2 million barrels per day to the market within years, the current state of infrastructure decay suggests a long and capital-intensive recovery. Until a diplomatic "Grand Bargain" is reached, Venezuela will remain the ultimate wildcard in the global energy transition.

Sources

◌ Council on Foreign Relations: U.S. Confrontation with Venezuela Tracker

◌ Al Jazeera: 26 Years of Fraught U.S.-Venezuela Relations

◌ U.S. Energy Information Administration: Venezuela Country Analysis 2025

◌ Wood Mackenzie: The Future of Venezuelan Oil Production