The concept of "peak water"—the point at which non-renewable groundwater extraction rates reach their maximum and then begin to decline—is supported by an integrated model that simulates water usage across hundreds of basins under various future scenarios.
This analysis reveals a clear peak-and-decline signature, similar to that observed with other finite resources like oil, predicting that global non-renewable groundwater withdrawal will likely peak, on average, around mid-century.
This decline is driven not necessarily by the physical exhaustion of all water, but by the rapidly increasing cost and energy required to pump water as aquifers are depleted, making it economically or physically infeasible in many regions. This impending peak is a critical warning, as it could expose nearly half of the global population to severe groundwater stress, especially in highly dependent agricultural regions like India, China, and the United States.
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