Yaqeen Articles

In the heart of the Arabian Peninsula, a transformation of unprecedented scale and speed is underway. Saudi Vision 2030, the ambitious blueprint championed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is rapidly reshaping the economic, social, and religious fabric of the world's largest oil exporter. The multi-trillion-dollar plan aims to pivot the Kingdom away from its long-standing dependence on hydrocarbons, foster a vibrant private sector, and cultivate a more open, modern society. As gleaming mega-projects like NEOM rise from the desert sands and social reforms rewrite decades-old norms, Saudi Arabia finds itself at a pivotal crossroads, navigating the complex interplay between progress and tradition, global integration and cultural identity.

This sweeping modernization has ignited a vibrant, often polarized, debate within the Kingdom. For many, particularly the youth who constitute the majority of the population, Vision 2030 represents a long-awaited dawn of opportunity and social freedom. For others, it is a source of profound concern, threatening to erode the deeply conservative Islamic values that have long defined the nation's identity as the custodian of Islam's two holiest sites. This article delves into the monumental changes unfolding, examining the pros and cons of this grand project through the distinct lenses of a conservative Muslim scholar and a progressive liberal Saudi.

Economic Revolution: Beyond Oil

At its core, Vision 2030 is an economic survival strategy. Recognizing the finite nature of oil wealth and the global shift towards renewable energy, the plan seeks to create a diversified, dynamic, and globally competitive economy. The strategy is multi-pronged, focusing on several key areas:

• Public Investment Fund (PIF): The PIF has been transformed from a sleepy sovereign wealth fund into a formidable global investment vehicle, acquiring significant stakes in international companies and funding domestic giga-projects. The goal is to grow its assets to over $2 trillion, making it the largest in the world and a primary engine of non-oil revenue.

• Privatization and Private Sector Growth: State-owned assets are being privatized to stimulate competition and attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Efforts are underway to cut bureaucratic red tape and improve the ease of doing business to empower small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are seen as crucial for job creation.

• New Growth Sectors: The Kingdom is pouring billions into developing sectors like tourism, entertainment, logistics, and technology. The once-closed country now offers tourist visas, and a burgeoning entertainment industry has seen the return of cinemas and the hosting of major international music and sporting events. Mega-projects such as the futuristic city of NEOM, the luxury Red Sea tourism destination, and the entertainment hub of Qiddiya are designed to be global magnets for talent and capital.

• Workforce Transformation: A central goal is to increase the participation of Saudi citizens, particularly women, in the private sector. Social reforms that allow women to drive and loosen male guardianship rules are intrinsically linked to this economic objective. Female labour force participation has already surged past the initial 2030 target of 30%.

Religious and Social Metamorphosis

The economic reforms are inextricably linked to a profound shift in the Kingdom's religious and social landscape. For decades, the Saudi state derived legitimacy from its alliance with a powerful, ultra-conservative Wahhabi religious establishment. This pact shaped a society with strict gender segregation, a powerful religious police (the Mutawa), and a ban on most forms of public entertainment.

Vision 2030 has deliberately and decisively altered this dynamic. The authority of the religious establishment has been significantly curtailed. The powers of the Mutawa have been stripped, and senior clerics who once loudly condemned social reforms have been side-lined or imprisoned. The state has assumed direct control over religious discourse, promoting a narrative of "moderate Islam" that is open to the world and tolerant of different cultures.

This state-led liberalization has ushered in a new era of social freedom, especially for the youth:

• Entertainment and Culture: The ban on cinemas has been lifted, and the country now hosts concerts by major Western artists, events that were unthinkable just a few years ago.

• Gender Mixing: The once-rigid rules on gender segregation have been relaxed in public spaces, restaurants, and workplaces, creating a more integrated social environment. 

• National Identity: There is a concerted effort to foster a distinct Saudi national identity that is not solely defined by religion. The promotion of pre-Islamic heritage sites like Al-Ula and the establishment of a "Founding Day" holiday that emphasizes the role of the Al Saud dynasty are key components of this new narrative.

A Muslim Scholar's Perspective: Progress at What Price?

From the viewpoint of a conservative Muslim scholar, the changes brought by Vision 2030 are a source of deep apprehension, representing a double-edged sword.

Pros:

The scholar would likely find merit in the plan's emphasis on economic prudence and self-sufficiency. The Islamic principle of avoiding wastefulness and providing for one's community aligns with the goal of diversifying away from oil, a finite resource. Creating meaningful employment for the youth is seen as a positive step towards building a stable and prosperous society. The drive to eradicate corruption and increase government transparency is also a goal that resonates with Islamic teachings on justice and accountability.

Furthermore, the state's investment in maintaining and expanding the holy sites in Mecca and Medina to accommodate more pilgrims is a commendable objective that fulfills the Kingdom's role as a leader of the Islamic world.

Cons:

However, the concerns are profound and numerous. The primary anxiety is the erosion of the Kingdom's Islamic identity. The rapid introduction of Western-style entertainment, such as music festivals and revealing attire at public events, is viewed as a direct challenge to the nation's deeply held religious and cultural values. This is seen not as modernization, but as "Westernization," importing social norms that are perceived as decadent and corrupting.

The side-lining of the 'Ulama' (religious scholars) is another major point of contention. For generations, scholars provided essential guidance and acted as the moral compass of society. By curbing their influence and jailing dissenting voices, the state is seen to be severing its connection to its religious foundations in favour of a secular, top-down authority. This raises fears that the very constitution of the state—Islam—is being weakened.

Finally, the scholar would be troubled by the emphasis on tourism that may not respect religious sensitivities. While welcoming Umrah and Hajj pilgrims is a duty, promoting mass tourism that could bring practices and behaviours conflicting with Islamic principles to the heartland of Islam is a significant concern. There is a fear that the pursuit of tourist dollars will lead to compromises on morality and religious observance.

A Liberal Saudi's Perspective: A Glimpse of Freedom

For a liberal Saudi, particularly from the younger, globally-connected generation, Vision 2030 is overwhelmingly positive, though not without its own set of critical reservations.

Pros:

The most celebrated achievements are the sweeping social reforms. The freedom for women to drive, travel without a male guardian's permission, and enter the workforce in unprecedented numbers is seen as a monumental step towards gender equality and personal liberty. The dismantling of the religious police's power has lifted a heavy weight from public life, allowing for a more relaxed and "normal" social environment. The availability of entertainment and cultural activities provides new avenues for self-expression and leisure, ending decades of social stagnation.

Economically, the focus on meritocracy, innovation, and private enterprise is a welcome departure from the old model of state dependency and guaranteed public sector jobs. It offers the promise of a future where talent and hard work, not just connections, are the keys to success. This generation is eager to participate in building a modern, globally integrated Saudi Arabia.

Cons:

Despite this optimism, a significant con is the absence of political reform. The social liberalization has been accompanied by a consolidation of political power and a severe crackdown on dissent. The same government that grants women the right to drive has also imprisoned the very activists who campaigned for it. This creates a troubling paradox: citizens are being given social and economic freedoms as a top-down grant from the state, not as inalienable rights. There is no freedom of expression, no free press, and no space for political participation.

Another concern is the sustainability and equity of the economic projects. There are questions about the viability of giga-projects like NEOM, which have faced reports of scaled-back ambitions and have been associated with the forced displacement of local tribes. There is a fear that the new, hyper-capitalist economy will primarily benefit a small, wealthy elite and international investors, while leaving many ordinary Saudis behind, burdened by new taxes (like VAT) and a higher cost of living. The promise of prosperity feels disconnected from the reality of a social contract where citizens have no say in the monumental decisions shaping their future.

In essence, the liberal Saudi welcomes the open society but chafes under the closed political system, desiring a future that is not only socially liberal and economically dynamic but also politically free and participatory.

Conclusion:

Saudi Vision 2030 is undeniably a revolutionary project, propelling the Kingdom into an uncertain but dynamic future. It is simultaneously a masterclass in top-down nation-building and a high-stakes gamble on social and economic re-engineering. The tension between the perspectives of the religious conservative and the social liberal encapsulates the central challenge for the nation: how to build a modern, diversified economy and a vibrant society without severing the deep roots of faith and culture that provide its unique identity. As Saudi Arabia marches towards 2030, the world watches to see if it can successfully navigate this delicate balance, creating a new model for the region or becoming a cautionary tale of ambition outpacing identity.

Sources:

• Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University. "Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and a Nation in Transition." (https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/saudi-arabias-vision-2030-and-nation-transition)

• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Vision 2030 in the Home Stretch: Clear Achievements yet Limited Accountability." (https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/03/vision-2030-in-the-home-stretch-clear-achievements-yet-limited-accountability)

• Gulf International Forum. "Sidelining Critics and Clergy, MBS' Social Reforms Could Provoke a Backlash." (https://gulfif.org/sidelining-critics-and-clergy-mbs-social-reforms-could-provoke-a-backlash/)

• Journal of Islamic World and Politics. "Saudi Vision 2030 and the Challenge of Competitive Identity Transformation in Saudi Arabia." (https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/jiwp/article/view/14579) 

• Official Saudi Vision 2030 Website. (https://www.vision2030.gov.sa/en/)

• Wilson Center. "Will Saudi Arabia's Social Revolution Provoke a Wahhabi Backlash?" (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/will-saudi-arabias-social-revolution-provoke-wahhabi-backlash)

• The Cambridge Security Initiative. "SAUDI ARABIA’S VISION 2030: PROGRESS AND PROBLEMS." (https://thecsi.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/SAUDI-ARABIA%E2%80%99S-VISION-2030-PROGRESS-AND-PROBLEMS_JAN2020.pdf)

• U.S. Department of State. "2024 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Saudi Arabia." (https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/saudi-arabia/)